IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/ijsepp/v39y2012i3p221-237.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An analysis of the interdependence of demographic factors, labour effort and economic growth in Ireland

Author

Listed:
  • Justin Doran

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effects of a declining birth rate and an increasing old age‐population ratio on Ireland's economic output. Design/methodology/approach - This paper utilises data on the birth rate, old‐age population ratio, economic output and labour effort of the Irish economy to estimate a vector‐autoregressive model. The results of this model are then analysed to test for the presence of Granger causality among these variables. In doing so it is possible to assess whether there are statistically significant causal relationships existing among these factors. Subsequently, impulse response functions are derived from this model in order to assess the magnitude of the causal relationships. Findings - The results suggest that declining fertility rates and increases in the old‐age dependency ratio have a significant impact on labour effort and economic output. Labour effort is also found to explain variation in the fertility rate and economic output. Economic output is found to effect labour effort and the fertility rate. Social implications - The results derived in this paper raise interesting policy implications. It is evident that Ireland's declining birth rate and increasing old‐age population ratio are creating a demographic situation which will have implications for future economic growth. Policies need to be put in place to mitigate the negative effects these factors will have on Irish growth. Originality/value - This paper adopts modern econometric techniques to assess the causal relationships which exist between the demographic and economic factors considered. These have not previously been applied to the Irish situation. In doing this, this paper provides an important insight into the changing dynamics of the Irish economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Justin Doran, 2012. "An analysis of the interdependence of demographic factors, labour effort and economic growth in Ireland," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(3), pages 221-237, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:ijsepp:v:39:y:2012:i:3:p:221-237
    DOI: 10.1108/03068291211199387
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/03068291211199387/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/03068291211199387/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/03068291211199387?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kelley, Allen C & Schmidt, Robert M, 1996. "Saving, Dependency and Development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 9(4), pages 365-386, November.
    2. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-1393, November.
    3. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1, March.
    4. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2005. "New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-27752-1, January.
    5. Titus Awokuse, 2005. "Exports, economic growth and causality in Korea," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 693-696.
    6. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    7. Wang, Ping & Yip, Chong K & Scotese, Carol A, 1994. "Fertility Choice and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 255-266, May.
    8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    9. Zapata, Hector O & Rambaldi, Alicia N, 1997. "Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 285-298, May.
    10. Pedro Mira & Namkee Ahn, 2002. "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(4), pages 667-682.
    11. Ermisch, John F, 1989. "Purchased Child Care, Optimal Family Size and Mother's Employment: Theory and Econometric Analysis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 2(2), pages 79-102.
    12. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Demographic changes, labor effort and economic growth: empirical evidence from Greece," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 169-188, February.
    13. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life‐cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, September.
    14. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
    15. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
    16. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Determinants of Female Fertility in Taiwan, 1966–2001: Empirical Evidence from Cointegration and Variance Decomposition Analysis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 393-407, December.
    17. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    18. Prskawetz, A. & Kogel, T. & Sanderson, W.C. & Scherbov, S., 2007. "The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 587-602.
    19. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    20. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. d'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
    21. Robert M. Schmidt & Allen C. Kelley, 1996. "Saving, dependency and development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 9(4), pages 365-386.
    22. Winegarden, C R & Wheeler, Mark, 1992. "The Role of Economic Growth in the Fertility Transition in Western Europe: Econometric Evidence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(236), pages 421-435, November.
    23. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    24. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    25. Ms. Dora M Iakova & Mr. Dennis P Botman, 2007. "Policy Challenges of Population Aging in Ireland," IMF Working Papers 2007/247, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Abul M. M. Masih & Rumi Masih, 1999. "Is a significant socio-economic structural change a pre-requisite for `initial' fertility decline in the LDCs? Evidence from Thailand based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error correction mode," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(3), pages 463-487.
    27. Doyle Eleanor, 2001. "Export-Output Causality and the Role of Exports in Irish Growth: 1950-1997," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 31-54.
    28. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gindra Kasnauskiene & Marija Andriuskaite, 2017. "Economic Implications Of Ageing Lithuanian Population," Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies, Faculty of Economics, Vilnius University, vol. 8(1).
    2. Ghosh, Sudeshna, 2017. "South Asian Countries : Economic Growth and Fertility," MPRA Paper 99891, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    2. Maite Alguacil & Ana Cuadros & Vicente Orts, 2004. "Does saving really matter for growth? Mexico (1970-2000)," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 281-290.
    3. Frini, Olfa & Muller, Christophe, 2012. "Demographic transition, education and economic growth in Tunisia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 351-371.
    4. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Demographic changes, labor effort and economic growth: empirical evidence from Greece," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 169-188, February.
    5. Do, Quy-Toan & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Raddatz, Claudio, 2016. "Comparative advantage, international trade, and fertility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 48-66.
    6. Zapata, Hector O. & Gil, Jose M., 1999. "Cointegration and causality in international agricultural economics research," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 1-9, January.
    7. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 6, pages 139-164, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Shahiduzzaman, Md. & Alam, Khorshed, 2014. "The long-run impact of Information and Communication Technology on economic output: The case of Australia," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 623-633.
    9. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2005. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Further Econometric Evidence From South Asia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 43(4), pages 472-488, December.
    10. Angela Luci & Olivier Thevenon, 2010. "Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in OECD countries?," Working Papers hal-00520948, HAL.
    11. Yifru, Tigist, 2015. "Impact of Agricultural Exports on Economic Growth in Ethiopia: The Case of Coffee, Oilseed and Pulses," Research Theses 243473, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    12. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Fertility and output in Europe: new evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 143-156, March.
    13. Tang, Chor Foon, 2010. "Savings-led growth theories: A time series analysis for Malaysia using the bootstrapping and time-varying causality techniques," MPRA Paper 27299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Giray Gozgor & Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Peter Rangazas, 2021. "Economic Uncertainty and Fertility," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages 373-399.
    15. Bianca Biagi & Manuela Pulina, 2009. "Bivariate VAR models to test Granger causality between tourist demand and supply: Implications for regional sustainable growth," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 231-244, March.
    16. Yifru, Tigist, 2015. "Impact Of Agricultural Exports On Economic Growth In Ethiopia: The Case Of Coffee, Oilseed And Pulses," Research Theses 265676, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    17. Mohammad Afzal, 2010. "Exchange Rate and Reserves in Asian Countries: Causality Test," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 215-223.
    18. Leiva, Benjamin & Liu, Zhongyuan, 2019. "Energy and economic growth in the USA two decades later: Replication and reanalysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 89-99.
    19. Bloom, D.E. & Luca, D.L., 2016. "The Global Demography of Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 3-56, Elsevier.
    20. Sovannroeun Samreth, 2010. "A Note on Short-Run and Long-Run Relationships between Parallel and Official Exchange Rates: The Case of Cambodia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1044-1053.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ireland; Demographics; Economic growth; Birth rate; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:ijsepp:v:39:y:2012:i:3:p:221-237. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.