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Fertility Choice and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence


  • Wang, P.
  • Yip, C.K.
  • Scotese, C.A.


This paper examines a growth model with endogenous consumption, labor-leisure, and fertility. A fertility choice variable capturing both the quality and quantity of the family size enters the utility function positively but also generates time costs. Theoretical comparative dynamic results are derived for changes in exogenous production and utility parameters. Employing post-World War II U.S. data, the authors estimate the model using a structural vector autoregression with imposed long-run restrictions based on the theoretical predictions. The empirical results lend support to the endogeneity of fertility choice and present dynamic responses of each endogenous variable to employment, fertility, and output shocks. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.
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  • Wang, P. & Yip, C.K. & Scotese, C.A., 1991. "Fertility Choice and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," Papers 6-91-3, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:pensta:6-91-3

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. de Melo, Jaime, 1988. "Computable general equilibrium models for trade policy analysis in developing countries: A survey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 469-503.
    2. Harris, Richard, 1984. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 1016-1032, December.
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    5. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Pro-competitive effects of trade reform : Results from a CGE model of Cameroon," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1157-1184, July.
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    7. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
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    9. James R. Markusen & James R. Melvin, 1981. "Trade, Factor Prices, and the Gains from Trade with Increasing Returns to Scale," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 14(3), pages 450-469, August.
    10. T. Condon & J. de Melo, 2015. "Industrial Organization Implications of QR Trade Regimes: Evidence and Welfare Costs," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Modeling Developing Countries' Policies in General Equilibrium, chapter 19, pages 405-419 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Theodore C. Bergstrom & Hal R. Varian, 1985. "When Are Nash Equilibria Independent of the Distribution of Agents' Characteristics?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 715-718.
    12. Bhagwati, Jagdish N, 1988. "Export-Promoting Trade Strategy: Issues and Evidence," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 3(1), pages 27-57, January.
    13. Horstmann, Ignatius J. & Markusen, James R., 1986. "Up the average cost curve: Inefficient entry and the new protectionism," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3-4), pages 225-247, May.
    14. Dani Rodrik, 1988. "Imperfect Competition, Scale Economies, and Trade Policy in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters,in: Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis, pages 109-144 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Corbo, Vittorio, 1985. "Reforms and macroeconomic adjustments in Chile during 1974-1984," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 893-916, August.
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    fertility ; economic growth ; economic theory;


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