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Is a significant socio-economic structural change a pre-requisite for `initial' fertility decline in the LDCs? Evidence from Thailand based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error correction modelling approach

Author

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  • Abul M. M. Masih

    () (School of Finance and Business Economics, Faculty of Business, Edith Cowan University, Joondalup Campus, Perth WA 6027, Australia (e-mail: a.masih@cowan.edu.au; Fax: +)

  • Rumi Masih

    (Faculty of Economics and Politics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 9DD, England)

Abstract

This study is the first attempt at placing the analysis of fertility in a temporal dynamic framework in the case of a developing Asian economy such as Thailand by binding the relationship between fertility and its determinants within a cointegrated system. The analysis is based on the application of the following recently developed dynamic time series techniques: cointegration, vector error-correction modelling, variance decompositions and the impulse response functions. The results tend to indicate that in the complex dynamic interactions, the importance of the conventional `structural' hypothesis as a significant factor in bringing fertility down in the longer term cannot be denied. However, in the short to longer term, our findings, although not fully supportive of any particular hypothesis, appear to be broadly consistent more with the hypothesis emphasising the critical role played by the `ideational' or diffusion forces along with the demographic variables in ensuring `initial' fertility decline than with the conventional `structural' hypothesis emphasising a significant socio-economic structural change as a pre-condition for `initial' fertility decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Abul M. M. Masih & Rumi Masih, 1999. "Is a significant socio-economic structural change a pre-requisite for `initial' fertility decline in the LDCs? Evidence from Thailand based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error correction mode," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(3), pages 463-487.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:12:y:1999:i:3:p:463-487
    Note: Received: 7 April 1995/Accepted: 15 May 1998
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    Cited by:

    1. Justin Doran, 2012. "An analysis of the interdependence of demographic factors, labour effort and economic growth in Ireland," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(3), pages 221-237, February.
    2. Frini, Olfa & Muller, Christophe, 2012. "Demographic transition, education and economic growth in Tunisia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 351-371.
    3. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Schwarz, 2016. "Dynamic elasticities of tax revenue: evidence from the Czech Republic," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(60), pages 5866-5881, December.
    4. Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Arshad, Shaista, 2017. "Analysis of the efficiency–integration nexus of Japanese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 470(C), pages 296-308.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility · vector error-correction model · variance decomposition;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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