IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Is a significant socio-economic structural change a pre-requisite for `initial' fertility decline in the LDCs? Evidence from Thailand based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error correction modelling approach

  • Abul M. M. Masih

    ()

    (School of Finance and Business Economics, Faculty of Business, Edith Cowan University, Joondalup Campus, Perth WA 6027, Australia (e-mail: a.masih@cowan.edu.au; Fax: +)

  • Rumi Masih

    (Faculty of Economics and Politics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 9DD, England)

This study is the first attempt at placing the analysis of fertility in a temporal dynamic framework in the case of a developing Asian economy such as Thailand by binding the relationship between fertility and its determinants within a cointegrated system. The analysis is based on the application of the following recently developed dynamic time series techniques: cointegration, vector error-correction modelling, variance decompositions and the impulse response functions. The results tend to indicate that in the complex dynamic interactions, the importance of the conventional `structural' hypothesis as a significant factor in bringing fertility down in the longer term cannot be denied. However, in the short to longer term, our findings, although not fully supportive of any particular hypothesis, appear to be broadly consistent more with the hypothesis emphasising the critical role played by the `ideational' or diffusion forces along with the demographic variables in ensuring `initial' fertility decline than with the conventional `structural' hypothesis emphasising a significant socio-economic structural change as a pre-condition for `initial' fertility decline.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00148/papers/9012003/90120463.pdf
Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Population Economics.

Volume (Year): 12 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 463-487

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:12:y:1999:i:3:p:463-487
Note: Received: 7 April 1995/Accepted: 15 May 1998
Contact details of provider: Phone: +43-70-2468-8236
Fax: +43-70-2468-8238
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00148/index.htmEmail:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:12:y:1999:i:3:p:463-487. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn)

or (Christopher F Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.