IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cnb/wpaper/2015-08.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamic Elasticities of Tax Revenue: Evidence from the Czech Republic

Author

Listed:
  • Tomas Havranek
  • Zuzana Irsova
  • Jiri Schwarz

Abstract

Tax revenue elasticities with respect to tax bases are key parameters for the modeling of public finances. Yet the existing studies estimating these elasticities for post-transition countries disregard the effects of tax reforms on tax revenue, which renders their estimates inconsistent. We use a unique data set from the Czech Republic to account for the effects of reforms and estimate both short- and long-run tax revenue elasticities. Our results suggest that the long-run elasticities are 1.4 for wage tax, 0.9 for value added tax, 1.7 for profit tax, and 1 for social security contributions. The adjustment process for value added tax and social security contributions is fast, but for the remaining two categories it is important to distinguish between the short- and long-run elasticities: the initial response of revenue to changes in the bases is weak. In the case of wage tax it takes half a year for the elasticity to surpass unity.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Schwarz, 2015. "Dynamic Elasticities of Tax Revenue: Evidence from the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2015/08, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2015/08
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/download/cnbwp_2015_08.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Vogelsang, Timothy J. & Wagner, Martin, 2014. "Integrated modified OLS estimation and fixed-b inference for cointegrating regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(2), pages 741-760.
    3. Fricke, Hans & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2014. "Growth and Volatility of Tax Revenues in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 114-138.
    4. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    5. Guido Wolswijk, 2009. "The short- and long-run tax revenue response to changes in tax bases," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1960-1970.
    6. Roberto Machado & José Zuloeta, 2012. "The Impact of the Business Cycle on Elasticities of Tax Revenue in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 76398, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Robert Price & Thai-Thanh Dang & Yvan Guillemette, 2014. "New Tax and Expenditure Elasticity Estimates for EU Budget Surveillance," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1174, OECD Publishing.
    8. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    9. Bouthevillain, C. & Van Den Dool, G. & Langenus, G. & Mohr, M. & Momigliano, S. & Tujula, M. & De Cos, P.H. & Cour-Thimann, Philippine, 2001. "Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances: an Alternative Approach," Papers 77, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
    10. Koester, Gerrit B. & Priesmeier, Christoph, 2012. "Estimating dynamic tax revenue elasticities for Germany," Discussion Papers 23/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O., 2014. "A reconciliation of SVAR and narrative estimates of tax multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages 1-19.
    12. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    13. Abul M. M. Masih & Rumi Masih, 1999. "Is a significant socio-economic structural change a pre-requisite for `initial' fertility decline in the LDCs? Evidence from Thailand based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error correction mode," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(3), pages 463-487.
    14. Savina Princen & Gilles Mourre & Dario Paternoster & George-Marian Isbasoiu, 2013. "Discretionary tax measures: pattern and impact on tax elasticities," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 499, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    15. Donald Bruce & William F. Fox & M.H. Tuttle, 2006. "Tax Base Elasticities: A Multi-State Analysis of Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 315-341, October.
    16. repec:idb:brikps:publication-detail,7101.html?id=57526 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2008. "Corporation tax buoyancy and revenue elasticity in the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 24-37, January.
    18. Robert Ambrisko & Vitezslav Augusta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Pavla Netusilova & Milan Rikovsky & Pavel Soukup, 2012. "Fiscal Discretion in the Czech Republic in 2001-2011: Has It Been Stabilizing?," Research and Policy Notes 2012/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    19. Aleš Kreidl & Onøej Schneider, 2000. "Structural Deficits in Czech Public Finances," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 50(3), pages 160-174, March.
    20. Vladimir Bezdek & Kamil Dybczak & Ales Krejdl, 2003. "Czech Fiscal Policy: Introductory Analysis," Working Papers 2003/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Deli, Yota & Rodriguez, Abian Garcia & Kostarakos, Ilias & Varthalitis, Petros, 2018. "Dynamic tax revenue buoyancy estimates for a panel of OECD countries," Papers WP592, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Jan Bruha & Jiri Polansky & Jaromir Tonner & Stanislav Tvrz & Osvald Vasicek & Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak & Lubomir Lizal & Diana Zigraiova, 2016. "Topics in Labour Markets," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 14, number rb14/1 edited by Jan Babecky, March.
    3. Koester, Gerrit & Priesmeier, Christoph, 2017. "Revenue elasticities in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1989, European Central Bank.
    4. repec:nax:conyad:v:62:y:2017:i:3:p:1041-1057 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb16/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Miroslav Plasil & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlavac & Volha Audzei & Jakub Mateju & Michal Kejak & Simona Malovana & Jan Frait, 2016. "Financial Cycles and Macroprudential and Monetary Policies," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 14, number rb14/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Hlavacek, March.
    7. repec:mes:eaeuec:v:56:y:2018:i:2:p:99-121 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb16/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb15/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb15/1 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elasticity; error correction models; tax base; tax revenue;

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H27 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Other Sources of Revenue

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2015/08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jan Babecky). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cnbgvcz.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.