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Revenue elasticities in euro area countries

Author

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  • Koester, Gerrit
  • Priesmeier, Christoph

Abstract

Revenue elasticities play a key role in forecasting, monitoring and analysing public finances under the European fiscal framework, which largely builds on cyclically adjusted indicators. This paper investigates whether there is evidence for dynamic – instead of the currently used static – elasticities in euro area countries. Applying country-specific error correction models we reveal important differences across countries. For a majority of euro area Member States we find evidence for dynamic revenue elasticities. We show that the application of such dynamic elasticities could substantially reduce forecast errors in several countries – with the evidence being stronger based on ex-post than based on real-time data. JEL Classification: E62, H68

Suggested Citation

  • Koester, Gerrit & Priesmeier, Christoph, 2017. "Revenue elasticities in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1989, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20171989
    Note: 3015628
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gilles Mourre & Savina Princen, 2015. "Tax Revenue Elasticities Corrected for Policy Changes in the EU," European Economy - Discussion Papers 018, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Gilles Mourre & Aurélien Poissonnier, 2019. "What Drives the Responsiveness of the Budget Balance to the Business Cycle in EU Countries?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 54(4), pages 237-249, July.
    3. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa & Umut Unal, 2021. "Estimating Policy-Corrected Long-Term and Short-Term Tax Elasticities for the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202112, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. Victor Ogneru & Stelian Stancu, 2022. "The impact of the VAT gap on the degree of taxation of an economy - analysis with panel data," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 12(7), pages 164-184, May.
    5. OGNERU, Victor, 2019. "Analysis Of The Relationship Between Tax Revenue And Gross Value Added In The Romanian Economy," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 23(2), pages 37-55, June.
    6. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa & Umut Ünal, 2023. "Estimating policy-corrected long-term and short-term tax elasticities for the USA, Germany, and the United Kingdom," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 465-504, January.
    7. Lagravinese, Raffaele & Liberati, Paolo & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "Tax buoyancy in OECD countries: New empirical evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Antonia Díaz, 2020. "Common Fiscal Capacity Is Needed to Strengthen Risk Sharing," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(4), pages 215-219, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    error correction models; EU fiscal surveillance; real-time data; revenue elasticities; tax forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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