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Estimating dynamic tax revenue elasticities for Germany

  • Koester, Gerrit B.
  • Priesmeier, Christoph

We analyse tax revenue elasticities by applying dynamic models to a new disaggregated dataset for Germany, which is adjusted for the effects of tax reforms. We estimate long-run elasticities that are substantially lower than in comparable studies for profit-related taxes and are slightly lower for value-added taxes, whereas the long-run elasticity for wage taxes is close to the consensus estimate in the literature. Additionally, we find that differences between short- and long-run elasticities are particularly important with respect to profit-related taxes. Here we estimate a far lower contemporaneous response to tax base changes than other studies and a dynamic reaction pattern spanning several years, which can be explained, for example, by tax collection lags.

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Papers with number 23/2012.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:232012
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  1. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jürgen, 2005. "Autoregressive distributed lag models and cointegration," Discussion Papers 2005/22, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  2. Thiess Büttner & Anita Dehne & Gebhard Flaig & Oliver Hülsewig & Peter Winker, 2006. "Berechnung der BIP-Elastizitäten öffentlicher Ausgaben und Einnahmen zu Prognosezwecken und Diskussion ihrer Volatilität : Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen," ifo Forschungsberichte, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 28, July.
  3. Sobel, Russell S. & Holcombe, Randall G., 1996. "Measuring the Growth and Variability of Tax Bases over the Business Cycle," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 535-52, December.
  4. Fricke, Hans & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2014. "Growth and Volatility of Tax Revenues in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 114-138.
  5. Mark W. Nichols & Mehmet Serkan Tosun, 2007. "The Income Elasticity of Casino Revenues: Short-Run and Long-Run Estimates," Working Papers 07-015, University of Nevada, Reno, Department of Economics;University of Nevada, Reno , Department of Resource Economics.
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