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Estimating dynamic tax revenue elasticities for Germany

Author

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  • Koester, Gerrit B.
  • Priesmeier, Christoph

Abstract

We analyse tax revenue elasticities by applying dynamic models to a new disaggregated dataset for Germany, which is adjusted for the effects of tax reforms. We estimate long-run elasticities that are substantially lower than in comparable studies for profit-related taxes and are slightly lower for value-added taxes, whereas the long-run elasticity for wage taxes is close to the consensus estimate in the literature. Additionally, we find that differences between short- and long-run elasticities are particularly important with respect to profit-related taxes. Here we estimate a far lower contemporaneous response to tax base changes than other studies and a dynamic reaction pattern spanning several years, which can be explained, for example, by tax collection lags.

Suggested Citation

  • Koester, Gerrit B. & Priesmeier, Christoph, 2012. "Estimating dynamic tax revenue elasticities for Germany," Discussion Papers 23/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:232012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Uwe Hassler & Jürgen Wolters, 2006. "Autoregressive distributed lag models and cointegration," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, pages 59-74.
    2. Fricke, Hans & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2014. "Growth and Volatility of Tax Revenues in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, pages 114-138.
    3. Mark W. Nichols & Mehmet Serkan Tosun, 2007. "The Income Elasticity of Casino Revenues: Short-Run and Long-Run Estimates," Working Papers 07-015, University of Nevada, Reno, Department of Economics;University of Nevada, Reno , Department of Resource Economics.
    4. Sobel, Russell S. & Holcombe, Randall G., 1996. "Measuring the Growth and Variability of Tax Bases over the Business Cycle," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 535-52, December.
    5. Thiess Büttner & Anita Dehne & Gebhard Flaig & Oliver Hülsewig & Peter Winker, 2006. "Berechnung der BIP-Elastizitäten öffentlicher Ausgaben und Einnahmen zu Prognosezwecken und Diskussion ihrer Volatilität : Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 28, October.
    6. Keen, Michael & Smith, Stephen, 2006. "VAT Fraud and Evasion: What Do We Know and What Can Be Done?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 59(4), pages 861-887, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gilles Mourre & Savina Princen, 2015. "Tax Revenue Elasticities Corrected for Policy Changes in the EU," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 018, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Yılmaz, Engin & Süslü, Bora, 2015. "The Calculation of Weighted Price Elasticity of Tax: Turkey (1998-2013)," MPRA Paper 64417, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Apr 2015.
    3. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Schwarz, 2016. "Dynamic elasticities of tax revenue: evidence from the Czech Republic," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(60), pages 5866-5881, December.
    4. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
    5. Raffaele Lagravinese & Paolo Liberati & Agnese Sacchi, 2016. "The growth and variability of local taxes: An application to the Italian regions," Working Papers. Collection B: Regional and sectoral economics 1601, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.
    6. Tomasz Jędrzejowicz & Kamila Sławińska, 2014. "Shifting from Labor to Consumption Taxes: The Impact on Tax Revenue Volatility," Gospodarka Narodowa, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 6, pages 81-101.
    7. Christian Breuer, 2012. "Keine strukturelle Verbesserung der Haushaltslage - Zu den Ergebnissen der Steuerschätzung vom November 2012," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(22), pages 13-18, November.
    8. Christian Breuer, 2013. "Kassensturz nach der Bundestagswahl: Zu den Ergebnissen der Steuerschätzung vom November 2013," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(22), pages 64-69, November.
    9. Koester, Gerrit & Priesmeier, Christoph, 2017. "Revenue elasticities in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1989, European Central Bank.
    10. Michael Brei, 2013. "Offshore financial centers in the Caribbean: An overview," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-40, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    11. Altemeyer-Bartscher, Martin & Zeddies, Götz, 2017. "Bracket creeps: Bane or boon for the stability of numerical budget rules?," IWH Discussion Papers 29/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic tax revenue elasticities; Disaggregated analysis; Error correction models;

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy

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