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Keine strukturelle Verbesserung der Haushaltslage – Zu den Ergebnissen der Steuerschätzung vom November 2012

  • Christian Breuer

    ()

Das günstige Steueraufkommen am aktuellen Rand hat den Arbeitskreis »Steuerschätzungen« bei seiner 141. Sitzung Ende Oktober 2012 dazu veranlasst, die Schätzung für das Jahr 2012 nach oben zu korrigieren. Für das laufende Jahr wird nunmehr mit einem Steueraufkommen in Höhe von 602,4 Mrd. Euro gerechnet. Noch im Mai wurden 596,5 Mrd. Euro erwartet. Die positive Schätzungskorrektur im laufenden Jahr ist vor allem dem laufenden Kassenergebnis zu verdanken. Für die Folgejahre sind die Revisionen der Schätzergebnisse verhaltener. Für das Jahr 2013 wird mit einem Gesamtsteueraufkommen in Höhe von 618,0 Mrd. Euro nahezu exakt das gleiche Ergebnis erwartet wie im Mai. Im Jahr 2016 kommt es im Vergleich zur Schätzung vom Mai sogar zu Mindereinnahmen. Am Ende des Projektionszeitraums im Jahr 2017 liegen die prognostizierten Steuereinnahmen insgesamt bei 706,6 Mrd. Euro.

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Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 65 (2012)
Issue (Month): 22 (November)
Pages: 13-18

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:22:p:13-18
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  1. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
  2. Kempkes, Gerhard, 2012. "Cyclical adjustment in fiscal rules: Some evidence on real-time bias for EU-15 countries," Discussion Papers 15/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. Koester, Gerrit B. & Priesmeier, Christoph, 2012. "Estimating dynamic tax revenue elasticities for Germany," Discussion Papers 23/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2012. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Aufwind – Europäische Schuldenkrise schwelt weiter," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(08), pages 03-72, 04.
  5. Christian Breuer, 2012. "Strukturelle Konsolidierung ohne Finanzpolitik – Zu den Ergebnissen der Steuerschätzung vom Mai 2012," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(10), pages 38-43, 05.
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