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Deutsche Konjunktur im Aufwind – Europäische Schuldenkrise schwelt weiter

  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose
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    Am 19. April 2012 stellte die Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose in Berlin ihr Frühjahrsgutachten der Presse vor. Ihrer Ansicht nach befindet sich die deutsche Wirtschaft nach einem schwachen Winterhalbjahr im Aufwind. Die Institute prognostizieren eine Zunahme des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 0,9 % für das Jahr 2012 und um 2,0 % für das Jahr 2013. Die Lage am Arbeitsmarkt wird sich dabei weiter verbessern und die Zahl der Arbeitslosen auf 2,8 Millionen im Jahr 2012 zurückgehen. Die Defizitquote des Staates wird voraussichtlich auf 0,6 % sinken. Die akuten Risiken für die Weltkonjunktur sind gegenüber dem vergangenen Herbst deutlich gesunken. Auch die Weltproduktion stieg zuletzt wieder etwas schneller, nachdem sie in der zweiten Hälfte des vergangenen Jahres spürbar an Schwung verloren hatte. Gleichwohl bleibt der Ausblick für die internationale Konjunktur verhalten.

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    Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

    Volume (Year): 65 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 08 (04)
    Pages: 03-72

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    Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:08:p:03-72
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    1. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2010. "Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: Evidence from the UK, Japan and the US," Economics Series Working Papers 487, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2010. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2010: Erholung setzt sich fort – Risiken bleiben groß," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(08), pages 03-78, 04.
    3. Francesca D'Auria & Cécile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 420, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2010. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2010: Deutschland im Aufschwung – Wirtschaftspolitik vor wichtigen Entscheidungen," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(20), pages 03-61, October.
    5. Francisco Carballo-Cruz, 2011. "Causes and Consequences of the Spanish Economic Crisis: Why the Recovery is Taken so Long?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(3), pages 309-328, September.
    6. Oliver Holtemöller & Tobias Knedlik, 2011. "Prävention und Management von Staatsinsolvenzen in der Europäischen Währungsunion," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer, vol. 91(3), pages 173-178, March.
    7. Tobias Knedlik & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2011. "Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe," IWH Discussion Papers 12, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
    9. Diemo Dietrich & Achim Hauck, 2012. "Government interventions in banking crises: effects of alternative schemes on bank lending and risk taking," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(2), pages 133-161, 05.
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