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Deutsche Konjunktur im Aufwind – Europäische Schuldenkrise schwelt weiter

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  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose

Abstract

Am 19. April 2012 stellte die Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose in Berlin ihr Frühjahrsgutachten der Presse vor. Ihrer Ansicht nach befindet sich die deutsche Wirtschaft nach einem schwachen Winterhalbjahr im Aufwind. Die Institute prognostizieren eine Zunahme des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 0,9 % für das Jahr 2012 und um 2,0 % für das Jahr 2013. Die Lage am Arbeitsmarkt wird sich dabei weiter verbessern und die Zahl der Arbeitslosen auf 2,8 Millionen im Jahr 2012 zurückgehen. Die Defizitquote des Staates wird voraussichtlich auf 0,6 % sinken. Die akuten Risiken für die Weltkonjunktur sind gegenüber dem vergangenen Herbst deutlich gesunken. Auch die Weltproduktion stieg zuletzt wieder etwas schneller, nachdem sie in der zweiten Hälfte des vergangenen Jahres spürbar an Schwung verloren hatte. Gleichwohl bleibt der Ausblick für die internationale Konjunktur verhalten.

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  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2012. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Aufwind – Europäische Schuldenkrise schwelt weiter," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(08), pages 03-72, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:08:p:03-72
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    3. Winkler Adalbert, 2018. "Zehn Jahre nach dem Konkurs von Lehman Brothers: Ordnungspolitische Irrtümer in der Bewertung der EZB-Geldpolitik seit der globalen Finanzkrise," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 141-162, July.
    4. Christian Breuer, 2012. "No Structural Improvement in the Budget – On the Results of the Tax Revenue Forecast of November 2012," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(22), pages 13-18, November.
    5. Heinz Gebhardt & Rainer Kambeck & Florian Matz, 2012. "Ernsthafte Konsolidierung muss Priorität der neuen NRW-Landesregierung werden," RWI Positionen, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 18, 05.
    6. Gebhardt, Heinz & Kambeck, Rainer & Matz, Florian, 2012. "Ernsthafte Konsolidierung muss Priorität der neuen NRW-Landesregierung werden," RWI Positionen 49, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.

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