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Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2014: Upturn in German Economy, but Economic Policy Creates Headwind

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  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose

Abstract

On 10 April 2014 the Joint Economic Forecast Project Group presented its spring forecast to the press in Berlin. In its opinion the German economy is experiencing an upturn in spring 2014. Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 1.9% this year. The 68% projection interval ranges from 1.2% to 2.6%. Domestic demand is the main driver of growth. Consumer prices will increase by a moderate 1.3% in 2014. The number of persons in employment looks set to rise steeply once again in 2014. Economic activity, however, will have to weather an economic policy headwind. The entitlement to a full pension as of 63 years is a step in the wrong direction and the introduction of the minimum wage will curb the rise in employment in 2015.

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  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2014. "Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2014: Upturn in German Economy, but Economic Policy Creates Headwind," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(08), pages 03-64, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:67:y:2014:i:08:p:03-64
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    Cited by:

    1. Holtemöller, Oliver & Pohle, Felix, 2020. "Employment effects of introducing a minimum wage: The case of Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 108-121.
    2. Alexander Eck & Carolin Fritzsche & Jan Kluge & Joachim Ragnitz & Felix Rösel, 2015. "Fiscal Capacity and Determining Structural Characteristics of the Eastern German Laender," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 76.
    3. Philipp Breidenbach & Roland Döhrn & Tanja Kasten, 2014. "Günstige Gelegenheit: Jetzt die kalte Progression abschaffen. Verzicht auf heimliche Steuererhöhungen würde den Staat nur 3,8 Milliarden Euro pro Jahr kosten," RWI Positionen, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 12, 07.
    4. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Fuest, Angela & Gebhardt, Heinz & an de Meulen, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana & Zwick, Lina, 2015. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Konjunktur bleibt aufwärts gerichtet," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(3), pages 39-98.
    5. Dürig, Wolfgang, 2014. "Die konjunkturelle Entwicklung im Handwerk 2013," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 65(2), pages 35-51.
    6. Moog, Stefan & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2014. "Ehrbarer Staat? Die Generationenbilanz. Update 2014: Alte Gewinner und junge Verlierer," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 127, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    7. Thomas Strobel & Arno Städtler, 2014. "Investments and Leasing Show Strong Growth," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(12), pages 26-28, June.
    8. Johann Wackerbauer, 2014. "Entsorgungswirtschaft auf dem Weg zur Kreislaufwirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(09), pages 31-35, May.
    9. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Fuest, Angela & Gebhardt, Heinz & an de Meulen, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana & Zwick, Lina, 2015. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Kräftige Expansion - nachlassender Schub im kommenden Jahr," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(1), pages 43-107.
    10. Breidenbach, Philipp & Döhrn, Roland & Kasten, Tanja, 2014. "Günstige Gelegenheit: Jetzt die kalte Progression abschaffen. Verzicht auf heimliche Steuererhöhungen würde den Staat nur 3,8 Milliarden Euro pro Jahr kosten," RWI Positionen 60, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    11. Wolfgang Dürig, 2014. "Die konjunkturelle Entwicklung im Handwerk 2013," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 17, 06.
    12. Dürig, Wolfgang, 2015. "Die konjunkturelle Entwicklung im Handwerk 2014," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(2), pages 47-66.
    13. Roland Döhrn & György Barabas & Angela Fuest & Heinz Gebhardt & Philipp an de Meulen & Martin Micheli & Svetlana Rujin & Lina Zwick, 2015. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Kräftige Expansion – nachlassender Schub im kommenden Jahr," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 65, 03.
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    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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