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German Economy Recovering - Long-Term Appproach Needed to Economic Policy

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  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose

Abstract

On 18 April 2013 the Joint Economic Forecast Group presented its spring forecast to the press in Berlin. In its opinion, an upwards trend re-emerged in the German economy in spring 2013. The situation in the financial markets has eased thanks to subsiding uncertainty regarding the future of the European Monetary Union. The headwind in the world economy has also tailed off somewhat. The institutes expect gross domestic product in Germany to increase by 0.8% this year (68%-projection interval: 0.1% to 1.5%) and by 1.9% next year. The number of unemployed should continue to fall to an annual average of 2.9 million this year and 2.7 million in 2014. The inflation rate is expected to drop to 1.7% this year and edge up to 2.0% next year on the back of rising capacity utilisation. The public budget will be almost balanced in 2013 and should show a surplus of 0.5% in relation to gross domestic product in 2014 thanks to more favourable economic conditions. It is now time to readopt a longer-term approach to economic policy. Although structural adjustment processes implemented in the crisis-afflicted countries have started to deal with institutional problems in the euro area, they are far from resolved. The German public budget also faces massive long-term burdens related to demographic factors.

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  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "German Economy Recovering - Long-Term Appproach Needed to Economic Policy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(08), pages 03-77, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:66:y:2013:i:08:p:03-77
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    2. Baumann, Alexendra & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2019. "Publikationen von Wirtschaftsforschungsinstituten im deutschsprachigen Raum - Eine bibliometrische Analyse [Publications of Economic Research Insitutes in the German Speaking Area - A bibliometric ," MPRA Paper 92240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2013," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(43), pages 3-77.
    4. Timo Wollmershäuser, 2013. "ECB Monetary Policy in a Tight Spot – Can More “Forward Guidance” Help?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(22), pages 35-45, November.
    5. Roland Döhrn & György Barabas & Heinz Gebhardt & Tobias Kitlinksi & Martin Micheli & Simeon Vosen & Lina Zwick, 2013. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Binnennachfrage trägt Aufschwung," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 64, 09.
    6. Holtemöller Oliver, 2013. "Explosive Preisentwicklung und spekulative Blasen auf Rohstoffmärkten / Explosive behavior and speculative bubbles on commodity markets," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 64(1), pages 405-420, January.
    7. Gisela Färber & André W. Heinemann & Tanja Kasten & Reiner Holznagel & Jens Lemmer, 2013. "Prolongation of Solidarity Surcharge: False Signal in Tax Policy?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 03-16, October.
    8. Gustav A. Horn & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Ansgar Rannenberg & Katja Rietzler & Silke Tober & Peter Hohlfeld & Fabian Lindner & Sabine Stephan, 2013. "Krise überwunden? Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2013/2014," IMK Report 86-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    9. Christian Breuer, 2013. "Cash Check After the Bundestag Elections – On the Results of the Tax Revenue Forecast of November 2013," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(22), pages 64-69, November.
    10. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "Economy Picking Up – Put Budget Surpluses To Good Use," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(20), pages 03-60, October.
    11. Christian Breuer, 2013. "Will the Current Revenue Shortfalls Jeopardise Consolidation? Tax Revenue Estimate of May 2013," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(10), pages 68-74, May.
    12. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2013. "Wie der Staat 2010 bis 2012 konsolidiert hat," Kiel Policy Brief 62, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Kitlinski, Tobias & Micheli, Martin & Vosen, Simeon & Zwick, Lina, 2013. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Binnennachfrage trägt Aufschwung," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 64(3), pages 41-103.
    14. Beimann, Boris & Kambeck, Rainer, 2013. "Mehr Gerechtigkeit: Was steht zur Wahl? Eine mikrodatenbasierte Analyse und Kommentierung von Programmaussagen der Parteien zu Änderungen des Tarifs der Einkommensteuer unter dem Gesichtspunkt der fis," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 111428.
    15. Boss, Alfred, 2013. "Sozialversicherung bald wieder im Minus?," Kiel Policy Brief 63, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.

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