IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2010: Erholung setzt sich fort – Risiken bleiben groß

  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose
Registered author(s):

    Am 15. April 2010 stellte die Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose in Berlin ihr Frühjahrsgutachten der Presse vor. Ihrer Ansicht nach erholt sich die Weltwirtschaft, und die Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise der Jahre 2008 und 2009 wird allmählich überwunden. Allerdings ist das Tempo der Expansion in den einzelnen Weltregionen sehr unterschiedlich. In einigen Schwellenländern, vor allem in Asien, ist es ausgesprochen hoch, und vereinzelt besteht sogar die Gefahr einer konjunkturellen Überhitzung. Dagegen ist in den Industrieländern die Auslastung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Kapazitäten weiterhin gering. Hier hat sich die Erholung noch nicht gefestigt, sondern wird nach wie vor maßgeblich von der expansiven Wirtschaftspolitik getragen.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

    Volume (Year): 63 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 08 (04)
    Pages: 03-78

    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:63:y:2010:i:08:p:03-78
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich, Germany
    Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
    Fax: +49 (89) 985369
    Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Ben S. Bernanke, 2010. "Federal Reserve's exit strategy: testimony before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, March 25, 2010," Web Site 89, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," Scholarly Articles 11129154, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/03, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Costs and Benefits of the EMU and Other Monetary Unions: An Overview of Recent Research," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 603-41, September.
    5. Carone, Giuseppe & Koopman, Gert Jan & Pichelmann, Karl, 2009. "Labour market prospects and policies to soften the impact of the financial crisis," MPRA Paper 24864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ulrike Neyer & Jürgen Wiemers, 2004. "The Influence of a Heterogeneous Banking Sector on the Interbank Market Rate in the Euro Area," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 140(III), pages 395-428, September.
    7. Berger, Allen N & Udell, Gregory F, 1992. "Some Evidence on the Empirical Significance of Credit Rationing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 1047-77, October.
    8. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February.
    9. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 2001. "Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1501-1520, August.
    10. Hauck, Achim & Neyer, Ulrike, 2010. "The euro area interbank market and the liquidity management of the eurosystem in the financial crisis," DICE Discussion Papers 09, Heinrich‐Heine‐Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    11. John Krainer, 2009. "Recent developments in mortgage finance," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct26.
    12. Horst Rottmann & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2010. "A Micro Data Approach to the Identification of Credit Crunches," CESifo Working Paper Series 3159, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2003. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange-Rate Flexibility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 765-783.
    14. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2009. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2009: Zögerliche Belebung – steigende Staatsschulden," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(20), pages 03-64, October.
    15. György Barabas & Roland Döhrn & Heinz Gebhardt & Torsten Schmidt, 2009. "Was bringt das Konjunkturpaket II?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer, vol. 89(2), pages 128-132, February.
    16. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Hoffmann, Mathias & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2009. "Transmission of nominal exchange rate changes to export prices and trade flows and implications for exchange rate policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,21, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    18. Heinz Gebhardt & Rainer Kambeck, 2009. "Anstieg der Staatsverschuldung stellt Finanzpolitik vor große Herausforderungen," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer, vol. 89(7), pages 466-472, July.
    19. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Rolf Scheufele, 2008. "Das makroökonometrische Modell des IWH: Eine angebotsseitige Betrachtung," IWH Discussion Papers 9, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
    21. Fried, Joel & Howitt, Peter, 1980. "Credit Rationing and Implicit Contract Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(3), pages 471-87, August.
    22. Ben S. Bernanke, 2010. "Federal Reserve's exit strategy: testimony before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, February 10, 2010," Web Site 79, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Oliver Holtemöller & Rainer Schulz, 2010. "Investor Rationality and House Price Bubbles: Berlin and the German Reunification," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11, pages 465-486, November.
    24. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2009. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2009: Im Sog der Weltrezession," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(08), pages 03-81, 04.
    26. Lindner Axel, 2009. "Evaluating Communication Strategies for Public Agencies: Transparency, Opacity, and Secrecy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, July.
    27. J. John & Tobias Knedlik, 2010. "Reform der Kreditvergabe des IWF erhöht die Stabilität in Schwellenländern," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research, vol. 16(3), pages 164-173.
    28. F. Gulcin Ozkan & Anne Sibert & Alan Sutherland, 2004. "Monetary union and the Maastricht inflation criterion: The accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(4), pages 635-652, December.
    29. Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-57, September.
    30. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, 09.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:63:y:2010:i:08:p:03-78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.