IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkdp/472-473.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Droht in Deutschland eine Kreditklemme?

Author

Listed:
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Groll, Dominik
  • van Roye, Björn
  • Scheide, Joachim

Abstract

Die vorliegende Studie analysiert vor dem Hintergrund der durch die Finanzkrise bedingten Abschreibungen im Bankensektor die aktuelle Gefahr einer Kreditklemme in Deutschland und ihre möglichen Konsequenzen für die konjunkturelle Entwicklung. In einem Makromodell mit Bankensektor wird dabei gezeigt, dass exogene Verknappungen des Kreditangebots die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion für einen langen Zeitraum negativ beeinflussen. Im Hinblick auf die Situation des Bankensektors wird dessen Eigenkapitalposition auch vor dem Hintergrund der staatlichen Eigenkapitalmaßnahmen analysiert, und es werden Szenarien für die zukünftige Entwicklung der Eigenkapitalquoten beschrieben. Im Anschluss daran werden mithilfe eines ökonometrischen Mehrgleichungsmodells Prognosen für die branchenspezifischen Kreditvolumina abgeleitet. Im Rahmen eines gesamtwirtschaftlichen Modells wird dann die Frage analysiert, ob in nächster Zeit eine Kreditklemme droht. Die Ergebnisse weisen auf die erhebliche Relevanz der durchgeführten staatlichen Eigenkapitalmaßnahmen hin, die sehr wahrscheinlich verhindert haben, dass eine ausgeprägte Kreditklemme bereits im Laufe dieses Jahres eingetreten ist. Angesichts des noch zu erwartenden Abschreibungsbedarfs der Banken kann eine Kreditklemme in der nahen Zukunft allerdings nicht ausgeschlossen werden. Abschließend werden wirtschaftspolitische Optionen diskutiert, um aufzuzeigen, wie einer solchen Situation vorgebeugt werden kann.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Droht in Deutschland eine Kreditklemme?," Kiel Discussion Papers 472/473, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkdp:472-473
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/30341/1/618825444.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glenn Hoggarth & Steffen Sorensen & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 282, Bank of England.
    2. Dorothea Schäfer & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2009. "Bad Bank(s) and Recapitalization of the Banking Sector," Working Paper / FINESS 3.1B, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S & Tootell, Geoffrey M B, 2003. " Identifying the Macroeconomic Effect of Loan Supply Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 931-946, December.
    4. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2008. "Deutschland am Rande einer Rezession: Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2008," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 14(2. Sonder), pages 1-87.
    5. Marco Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2008. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms; Evidence From Macro Aggregates and Micro Data," IMF Working Papers 08/226, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Güssow, Kerstin & Proelss, Alexander & Oschlies, Andreas & Rehdanz, Katrin & Rickels, Wilfried, 2010. "Ocean iron fertilization: Why further research is needed," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 911-918, September.
    7. Ignazio Angeloni, 2009. "A Tale of Two Policies: Prudential Regulation and Monetary Policy with Fragile Banks," Working Papers 345, Bruegel.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    9. Rickels, Wilfried & Rehdanz, Katrin & Oschlies, Andreas, 2012. "Economic prospects of ocean iron fertilization in an international carbon market," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 129-150.
    10. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
    11. Nolan, Charles & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2009. "Financial shocks and the US business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 596-604, May.
    12. Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2005. "Exploring interactions between real activity and the financial stance," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 308-341, April.
    13. Adolfo Barajas & Roberto Steiner, 2002. "Credit Stagnation in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 02/53, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric, 1995. "The Capital Crunch: Neither a Borrower nor a Lender Be," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 625-638, August.
    15. Michael Biggs & Thomas Mayer & Andreas Pick, 2009. "Credit and economic recovery," DNB Working Papers 218, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    16. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    17. Braun, Sebastian, 2009. "Unionisation structures and heterogeneous firms," Kiel Working Papers 1566, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    18. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
    19. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2008. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2008," Kiel Discussion Papers 459/460, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    20. Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2010. "How resilient is the German banking system to macroeconomic shocks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1839-1848, August.
    21. Kick, Thomas & Koetter, Michael, 2007. "Slippery slopes of stress: Ordered failure events in German banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 132-148, July.
    22. Sven Blank & Jonas Dovern, 2010. "What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system?: Analysis in an integrated micro-macro model," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 126-148, June.
    23. Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2010. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2009," Kiel Discussion Papers 470/471, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Torsten Schmidt & Lina Zwick, 2012. "In Search for a Credit Crunch in Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 0361, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2010," Kiel Discussion Papers 478, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2014. "Makroprudenzielle Finanzmarktpolitik: Nationale Handlungsoptionen im Euroraum," Kiel Discussion Papers 541/542, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    5. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Schwarzmüller, Tim & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2014. "Finanz- und Wirtschaftspolitik bei einer anhaltenden monetären Expansion," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    6. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & van Roye, Björn & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Moderate Erholung in Deutschland - Arbeitsmarkt in erstaunlich guter Verfassung," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45584, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2010. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2010: Erholung setzt sich fort – Risiken bleiben groß," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(08), pages 03-78, April.
    8. repec:zbw:rwirep:0361 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Aufschwung lässt auf sich warten," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32954, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    10. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Erholung der Weltkonjunktur ohne große Dynamik," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32955, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    11. Schmidt, Torsten & Zwick, Lina, 2012. "In Search for a Credit Crunch in Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 361, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkdp:472-473. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.