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Aufschwung lässt auf sich warten

Author

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  • Boss, Alfred
  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Meier, Carsten-Patrick
  • van Roye, Björn
  • Scheide, Joachim

Abstract

Die Konjunktur in Deutschland ist nach dem schweren Einbruch wieder aufwärts gerichtet. Bis ein kräftiger Aufschwung einsetzt, wird jedoch noch Zeit vergehen. Im laufenden Winterhalbjahr dürfte der gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktionsanstieg sogar niedriger ausfallen als im Halbjahr davor. Erst danach wird die Konjunktur allmählich an Dynamik gewinnen. Für das Jahr 2010 erwarten wir einen Anstieg des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 1,2 Prozent (Prognose vom September: 1,0 Prozent), nach einem Rückgang um 5,0 Prozent (September: 4,9 Prozent) im Jahr 2009. Im Jahr 2011 wird die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion voraussichtlich um 2 Prozent ausgeweitet werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Aufschwung lässt auf sich warten," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32954, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:32954
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. D. W. K. Andrews, 2003. "End-of-Sample Instability Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1661-1694, November.
    2. Alfred Boss & Achim Boss & Thomas Boss, 2008. "Der deutsche Einkommensteuertarif: Wieder eine Wachstumsbremse?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 9(1), pages 102-124, February.
    3. Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "A Simple Adaptive Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 94-113, February.
    4. Todd E. Clark, 2001. "Comparing measures of core inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-31.
    5. Boss, Alfred & Rosenschon, Astrid, 2008. "Der Kieler Subventionsbericht: eine Aktualisierung," Kiel Discussion Papers 452/453, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    6. Boss, Alfred, 2009. "Finanzpolitik in Deutschland: Herausforderungen und Lösungswege," Kiel Working Papers 1547, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Nelson, Edward, 2002. "Direct effects of base money on aggregate demand: theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 687-708, May.
    8. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Droht in Deutschland eine Kreditklemme?," Kiel Discussion Papers 472/473, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    9. Boss, Alfred & Rosenschon, Astrid, 2009. "Finanzhilfen des Bundes: eine Bestandsaufnahme," Kiel Working Papers 1567, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    10. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils, 2009. "Do we face a credit crunch?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32839, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    11. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kappler, Marcus & Sachs, Andreas, 2011. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2011," Kiel Discussion Papers 496/497, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    12. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils, 2009. "Do we face a credit crunch?," Kiel Policy Brief 15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    13. Monika Ruschinski, 2005. "Die Rolle von Frühindikatoren bei Exportprognosen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(13), pages 13-19, July.
    14. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils, 2009. "Do we face a credit crunch?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32979, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
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