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Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2008

Author

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Van Roye, Björn
  • Sander, Birgit
  • Scheide, Joachim
  • Boss, Alfred
  • Meier, Carsten-Patrick

Abstract

[Weltkonjunktur auf Talfahrt] Die Phase starker Expansion der Weltwirtschaft ist im Jahr 2008 zu Ende gegangen. Die Zuspitzung der Finanzmarktkrise im September hat Schockwellen durch die Weltwirtschaft gesandt, und negative Rückkopplungseffekte haben zu einer ungewöhnlich starken Abwärtsdynamik geführt, die zunehmend auch die Schwellenländer erfasst hat. Gegen Jahresende ist die weltwirtschaftliche Aktivität regelrecht eingebrochen. In einer Reihe von Ländern ist der Abschwung Ausdruck der Korrektur von makroökonomischen Ungleichgewichten, insbesondere von Übersteigerungen am Immobilienmarkt, die in der Regel geraume Zeit in Anspruch nehmen und eine konjunkturelle Erholung verzögern. Trotz aller Anstrengungen der Regierungen und Notenbanken um eine Stabilisierung der Banken und eine Stimulierung der Konjunktur dürfte sich die Weltwirtschaft noch geraume Zeit, voraussichtlich über das gesamte kommende Jahr, auf Talfahrt befinden und sich anschließend nur zögerlich beleben. Wir haben unsere Prognose für den Anstieg der Weltproduktion drastisch von 3,3 Prozent (September) auf 0,4 Prozent reduziert. In den Industrieländern dürfte die Wirtschaft sogar um 1,8 Prozent schrumpfen. Dies wäre die schwerste Rezession seit Ende des zweiten Weltkriegs. - [Deutsche Wirtschaft in einer schweren Rezession] Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich in der Rezession. Nahezu alle Konjunkturindikatoren haben sich in den vergangenen Monaten drastisch verschlechtert. Für das Winterhalbjahr 2008/2009 ist ein Einbruch der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion wahrscheinlich. Auch im weiteren Verlauf des Jahres 2009 wird die Produktion in der Tendenz sinken. Wir revidieren unsere Prognose für den Anstieg des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts im Jahr 2008 von 1,9 auf 1,5 Prozent und die für das Jahr 2009 von 0,2 auf -2,7 Prozent. Im Jahr 2010 wird die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion voraussichtlich wieder steigen, allerdings nur geringfügig (+0,3 Prozent).

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2008. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2008," Kiel Discussion Papers 459/460, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkdp:459-460
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Droht in Deutschland eine Kreditklemme?," Kiel Discussion Papers 472/473, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas, 2009. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2009," Kiel Discussion Papers 461/462, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Konjunktureinbruch im Euroraum," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28802, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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