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Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2009: Zögerliche Belebung – steigende Staatsschulden

  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose
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    Am 15. Oktober 2009 stellten die Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute der Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose in Berlin ihr Herbstgutachten der Presse vor. Nach Ansicht der Institute scheint der Tiefpunkt der schwersten weltwirtschaftlichen Rezession seit dem Zweiten Weltkrieg überschritten. Vieles deutet auf eine konjunkturelle Erholung hin. Die Lage an den Weltfinanzmärkten hat sich erheblich entspannt, die Stimmungsindikatoren weisen wieder nach oben, die Auftragseingänge haben zugenommen, und die Produktion ist verbreitet gestiegen. Der Welthandel, der bis in das Frühjahr hinein rückläufig gewesen war, nahm im Sommer wieder deutlich zu. In einer Reihe von Schwellenländern, vor allem im asiatischen Raum, war die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion bereits im zweiten Quartal wieder deutlich aufwärts gerichtet. Maßgeblich für den Umschwung war die Stabilisierung an den Finanzmärkten, zu der es im Frühjahr als Folge massiver Interventionen der Notenbanken sowie der Ankündigung staatlicher Stützungsprogramme und Garantien für den Finanzsektor kam. In der Realwirtschaft machen sich außerdem zunehmend die anregenden Wirkungen der staatlichen Konjunkturprogramme bemerkbar.

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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Schnelldienst/zs-sd-2009/ifosd_2009_20_1.pdf
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    Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

    Volume (Year): 62 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 20 (October)
    Pages: 03-64

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    Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:20:p:03-64
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    1. Heinz Gebhardt & Rainer Kambeck, 2009. "Anstieg der Staatsverschuldung stellt Finanzpolitik vor große Herausforderungen," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer, vol. 89(7), pages 466-472, July.
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    8. James Tobin, 1978. "A Proposal for International Monetary Reform," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 506, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    14. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2009. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2009: Im Sog der Weltrezession," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(08), pages 03-81, 04.
    15. Heinz Gebhardt, 2009. "Steuerschätzung: Erheblich geringeres Aufkommen als bisher erwartet," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer, vol. 89(6), pages 397-402, June.
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