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The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance in EU Fiscal Policymaking. Love at First Sight Turned into a Mature Relationship

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  • Larch, Martin
  • Turrini, Alessandro

Abstract

The cyclically adjusted budget balance (CAB) plays a key role in the EU fi scal surveillance framework. It started off in a supporting role in the shadow of the headline defi cit and, before long, turned into the linchpin of the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact. The steep ascent was driven by high expectations which, with the passing of time, were only partly met. The everyday practice of the EU fi scal surveillance rapidly revealed a number of caveats of the CAB which, at times, hampered the effectiveness of fi scal surveillance. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the changing fortunes of the CAB in the EU fi scal surveillance framework. It portrays its main shortcomings and the way they are dealt with in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Larch, Martin & Turrini, Alessandro, 2009. "The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance in EU Fiscal Policymaking. Love at First Sight Turned into a Mature Relationship," MPRA Paper 20594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20594
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    1. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. European Commission, 2010. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2010 edition," Taxation trends 2010, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    2. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Daniel Sotelsek & Guido Zack, 2014. "Some New Results on the Estimation of Structural Budget Balance for Spain," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 210(3), pages 11-31, September.
    3. Luca Agnello & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2012. "Discretionary Fiscal Policies over the Cycle: New Evidence Based on the ESCB Disaggregated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(2), pages 43-85, June.
    4. Vladimir Tomsik, 2012. "Some insights into monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the Czech Republic," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 67, pages 161-171, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Andersen, Torben M., 2013. "Fiscal policy targeting under imperfect information," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 114-130.
    6. Doris Prammer & Lukas Reiss, 2014. "Fiscal Projections by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank: Methods and Motives," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 31-48.
    7. Döhrn, Roland & Gebhardt, Heinz, 2013. "Die fiskalischen Kosten der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise," IBES Diskussionsbeiträge 198, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of Business and Economic Studie (IBES).
    8. Torben M. Andersen, 2013. "The Swedish Fiscal Policy Framework and Intermediate Fiscal Policy Targets," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 231-248, June.
    9. Klaus Vondra, 2013. "Austria Withstands Recession: Return to Positive Growth in Early 2013," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 6-11.
    10. European Commission, 2012. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2012 edition," Taxation trends 2012, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    11. Artem Vdovychenko, 2018. "Estimating the Fiscal Impulse in Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 245, pages 45-63.
    12. Jef Vuchelen & Jesse De Wit, 2008. "An Evaluation of the OECD Cyclically-Adjusted Primary Government Balance Forecasts," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 51(4), pages 459-479.
    13. Fabrizio Coricelli & Riccardo Fiorito, 2013. "Myths and Facts about Fiscal Discretion: A New Measure of Discretionary Expenditure," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13033, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    14. IMK Düsseldorf & OFCE Paris & WIFO Wien, 2013. "Die Krise schwelt weiter," IMK Report 80-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    15. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Real-Time Measures of the Output Gap and Fiscal Policy Stance," ETLA Reports 37, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    16. Ludovit Ódor & Gábor P. Kiss, 2014. "Back to basics – good indicators for good fiscal institutions!," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 13(4), pages 125-151.
    17. Markus Marterbauer, 2010. "Budgetkonsolidierung in Zeiten verminderter Erwartungen," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 36(3), pages 299-323.
    18. Stephan Schulmeister, 2013. "Growth Dynamics Exposed to Conflict Between Easy Monetary Conditions and Fiscal Restriction. Medium-term Forecast for the World Economy Until 2017," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 18(1), pages 25-40, April.
    19. Bauer, Thomas K. & Gebhardt, Heinz & Matz, Florian & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schmidt, Torsten & Siemers, Lars-H., 2010. "Ermittlung der Konjunkturkomponenten für die Länderhaushalte zur Umsetzung der in der Föderalismuskommission II vereinbarten Verschuldungsbegrenzung: Endbericht - Juni 2010," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 69915.
    20. Villena, Mauricio G. & Gamboni, Cristóbal & Tomaselli, Andrés, 2018. "Fiscal sustainability and the cyclically adjusted balance policy: methodology and analysis for Chile," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    21. Stephan Schulmeister, 2014. "Der Fiskalpakt – Hauptkomponente einer Systemkrise," WIFO Working Papers 480, WIFO.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cyclically adjusted budget balance; Stability and Growth Pact; Fiscal Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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