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Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2010: Deutschland im Aufschwung – Wirtschaftspolitik vor wichtigen Entscheidungen

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  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose
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    Am 14. Oktober 2010 stellten die Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute der Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose in Berlin ihr Herbstgutachten der Presse vor. Nach Ansicht der Institute hat sich im Verlauf des Jahres 2010 die Erholung der Weltwirtschaft verlangsamt. Der im Winterhalbjahr stürmische Wiederaufschwung des Welthandels hat nach und nach an Tempo eingebüßt. Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich im Aufschwung. Sie ist auf gutem Weg, den krisenbedingten Produktionseinbruch wett zu machen. Dabei hat die Erholung an Breite gewonnen. So wird die Expansion – anders als im Verlauf des Vorjahres – nicht mehr allein von einem Anstieg der Exporte und einem Umschwung bei den Lagerinvestitionen getrieben. Vielmehr ist in diesem Jahr auch die Binnenkonjunktur angesprungen, sowohl die privaten Konsumausgaben als auch die Unternehmensinvestitionen legten spürbar zu.

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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Schnelldienst/zs-sd-2010/zs-sd-2010-20/ifosd_2010_20_1.pdf
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    Article provided by Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

    Volume (Year): 63 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 20 (October)
    Pages: 03-61

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    Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:63:y:2010:i:20:p:03-61
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    1. Krebs, Tom & Scheffel, Martin, 2010. "A macroeconomic model for the evaluation of labor market reforms," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-050, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    2. Dötz, Niko & Fischer, Christoph, 2010. "What can EMU countries' sovereign bond spreads tell us about market perceptions of default probabilities during the recent financial crisis?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    3. Wollmershäuser, Timo & Rottmann, Horst, 2010. "A micro data approach to the identification of credit crunches," Weidener Diskussionspapiere 24, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
    4. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2009. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2009: Zögerliche Belebung – steigende Staatsschulden," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(20), pages 03-64, October.
    5. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    6. Dovern Jonas & Jannsen Nils & Scheide Joachim, 2009. "Die Bedeutung monetärer Größen für die deutsche Wachstumsschwäche 1995–2005," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 60(1), pages 17-36, April.
    7. van Deuverden, Kristina & Freye, Sabine, 2010. "Schuldenbremse: Bisherige Beschlüsse stellen Gelingen auf Länderebene infrage," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 16(9), pages 438-447.
    8. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2005. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 77-103.
    9. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David H., 2006. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Working Paper Series 0633, European Central Bank.
    10. Christian Breuer & Thiess Büttner, 2010. "Auf Sand gebaut: Das strukturelle Defizit im Auf und Ab der Konjunktur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(11), pages 28-31, 06.
    11. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2010. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2010: Erholung setzt sich fort – Risiken bleiben groß," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(08), pages 03-78, 04.
    12. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2001. "Aging and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 8553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Heinz Gebhardt & Rainer Kambeck, 2009. "Anstieg der Staatsverschuldung stellt Finanzpolitik vor große Herausforderungen," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;German National Library of Economics, vol. 89(7), pages 466-472, July.
    14. Tom Krebs & Martin Scheffel, 2013. "Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany," IMF Working Papers 13/42, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2009. "Zögerliche Belebung – steigende Staatsschulden: Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2009," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 15(2. Sonder), pages 1-79.
    16. Reinhart, Carmen, 2009. "The Second Great Contraction," MPRA Paper 21485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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