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Auf Sand gebaut: Das strukturelle Defizit im Auf und Ab der Konjunktur

  • Christian Breuer

    ()

  • Thiess Büttner

Die sprunghafte Verschlechterung der Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen, von einem konjunkturbereinigt nahezu ausgeglichenen Haushalt im Jahr 2007 zu einem für 2010 geschätzten konjunkturbereinigten Defizit von 4,5%, wirft die Frage nach dem Aussagegehalt des so genannten strukturellen Defizits auf. Für den Zeitraum 1996–2009 zeigt sich ein deutlicher Zusammenhang zwischen der konjunkturellen Entwicklung und dem mit Standardverfahren ermittelten strukturellen Defizit. Zwar kann dieser Zusammenhang teilweise durch steuerpolitische Änderungen erklärt werden. Dennoch legt die Entwicklung den Verdacht nahe, dass das strukturelle Defizit in konjunkturellen Schwächephasen überschätzt, in Aufschwungsphasen aber unterschätzt wird.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Schnelldienst/zs-sd-2010/zs-sd-2010-11/ifosd_2010_11_4.pdf
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Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 63 (2010)
Issue (Month): 11 (06)
Pages: 28-31

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:63:y:2010:i:11:p:28-31
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  1. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
  2. Thiess Büttner & Anita Dehne & Gebhard Flaig & Oliver Hülsewig & Peter Winker, 2006. "Berechnung der BIP-Elastizitäten öffentlicher Ausgaben und Einnahmen zu Prognosezwecken und Diskussion ihrer Volatilität : Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen," ifo Forschungsberichte, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 28.
  3. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2010. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2010: Erholung setzt sich fort – Risiken bleiben groß," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(08), pages 03-78, 04.
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