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Konjunkturbereinigungsverfahren der Länder: Eine Quasi-Echtzeitanalyse am Beispiel Schleswig-Holsteins

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  • Jens Boysen-Hogrefe

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Abstract

Due to the debt brake German states are generally not allowed to run deficits. However, transitory deviations from this general rule can be made in response to business cycle fluctuations. Thus, cyclical adjustment is relevant for German states, and here especially with tax revenues. The article compares several methods for cyclical adjustment, namely local linear trends, the HP-filter and the method applied in Rhineland-Palatinate. Further, the impact of changes in tax law and the impact of the tax official projections are discussed. Finally, a real-time trend smoother is proposed to improve planning reliability. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2015. "Konjunkturbereinigungsverfahren der Länder: Eine Quasi-Echtzeitanalyse am Beispiel Schleswig-Holsteins," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 9(1), pages 41-57, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:astaws:v:9:y:2015:i:1:p:41-57
    DOI: 10.1007/s11943-014-0149-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    3. Friedrich Heinemann, 2006. "Planning or Propaganda? An Evaluation of Germany's Medium-term Budgetary Planning," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 62(4), pages 551-578, December.
    4. Breuer Christian, 2015. "On the Rationality of Medium-Term Tax Revenue Forecasts: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(1), pages 22-40, February.
    5. Christian Kastrop & Martin Snelting, 2008. "Das Modell des Bundesfinanzministeriums für eine neue Schuldenregel," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;German National Library of Economics, vol. 88(6), pages 375-382, June.
    6. Prof Thiess Büttner & Björn Kauder, 2008. "Steuerschätzung im internationalen Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(14), pages 29-35, July.
    7. Mark W. Watson, 2007. "How accurate are real-time estimates of output trends and gaps?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 143-161.
    8. van Deuverden, Kristina & Freye, Sabine, 2010. "Schuldenbremse: Bisherige Beschlüsse stellen Gelingen auf Länderebene infrage," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 16(9), pages 438-447.
    9. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Henzel Steffen R. & Wohlrabe Klaus & Lehmann Robert, 2015. "Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 66(1), pages 71-98, April.
    2. Ralf Thomas Münnich, 2015. "Vorwort des Herausgebers," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 9(1), pages 1-3, April.

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