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Konjunkturbereinigungsverfahren der Länder: Eine Quasi-Echtzeitanalyse am Beispiel Schleswig-Holsteins

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  • Jens Boysen-Hogrefe

Abstract

Due to the debt brake German states are generally not allowed to run deficits. However, transitory deviations from this general rule can be made in response to business cycle fluctuations. Thus, cyclical adjustment is relevant for German states, and here especially with tax revenues. The article compares several methods for cyclical adjustment, namely local linear trends, the HP-filter and the method applied in Rhineland-Palatinate. Further, the impact of changes in tax law and the impact of the tax official projections are discussed. Finally, a real-time trend smoother is proposed to improve planning reliability. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2015. "Konjunkturbereinigungsverfahren der Länder: Eine Quasi-Echtzeitanalyse am Beispiel Schleswig-Holsteins," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 9(1), pages 41-57, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:astaws:v:9:y:2015:i:1:p:41-57
    DOI: 10.1007/s11943-014-0149-2
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    1. Ralf Thomas Münnich, 2015. "Vorwort des Herausgebers," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 9(1), pages 1-3, April.
    2. Henzel Steffen R. & Lehmann Robert & Wohlrabe Klaus, 2015. "Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 66(1), pages 71-98, April.

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