Autoregressive distributed lag models and cointegration
This paper considers cointegration analysis within an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) framework. First, different reparameterizations and interpretations are reviewed. Then we show that the estimation of a cointegrating vector from an ADL specification is equivalent to that from an error-correction (EC) model. Therefore, asymptotic normality available in the ADL model under exogeneity carries over to the EC estimator. Next, we review cointegration tests based on EC regressions. Special attention is paid to the effect of linear time trends in case of regressions without detrending. Finally, the relevance of our asymptotic results in finite samples is investigated by means of computer experiments. In particular, it turns out that the conditional EC model is superior to the unconditional one.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Volume (Year): 90 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=112915|
|Order Information:||Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Uwe Hassler, 1999. "(When) Should cointegrating regressions be detrended? The case of a German money demand function," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 155-172.
- Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September.
- Urbain, J-P., 1991.
"On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models,"
9103, Liege - Centre de Recherches Economiques et Demographiques.
- Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Loretan, Mico, 1991.
"Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 407-36, May.
- Hassler, Uwe, 2000. " Cointegration Testing in Single Error-Correction Equations in the Presence of Linear Time Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(5), pages 621-32, December.
- Breusch, Trevor S & Wickens, Michael R., 1987. "Dynamic Specification, the Long Run and the Estimation of Transformed Regression Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 154, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988.
"Reflections on Econometric Methodology,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
893, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Helmut Luetkepohl, 2005.
"Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis for Cointegrated Variables,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2005/02, European University Institute.
- Helmut Lütkepohl, 2006. "Structural vector autoregressive analysis for cointegrated variables," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 90(1), pages 75-88, March.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Hylleberg, Svend & Mizon, Grayham E, 1989. "Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanisms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 113-25, Supplemen.
- Peter Boswijk, H., 1994. "Testing for an unstable root in conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 37-60, July.
- Phillips, P C B & Durlauf, S N, 1986.
"Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 473-95, August.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Steven N. Durlauf, 1985. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 768, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Alogoskoufis, George & Smith, Ron, 1991. " On Error Correction Models: Specification, Interpretation, Estimation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 97-128.
- Neil Ericsson, 2004. "The ET interview: professor David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 811, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-77, August.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Boswijk, H. Peter, 1995. "Efficient inference on cointegration parameters in structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 133-158, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:alstar:v:90:y:2006:i:1:p:59-74. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn)or (Christopher F Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.