IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boe/boeewp/134.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Consumption, money and lending: a joint model for the UK household sector

Author

Listed:
  • K Alec Chrystal
  • Paul Mizen

Abstract

Previous research has investigated consumers' expenditure and money demand as separable equations. This study estimates them jointly as driven by the same influences. Credit is also included as a potential third variable that might provide a source of additional information about the monetary transmission mechanism. Consumption, money and lending equations are modelled as an interdependent system, and the significance of lending for consumption and money is tested. The results using UK household sector data show that a stable credit equation does exist in parallel with money demand and consumption equations, and that interactions modelled in a conditional vector equilibrium correction system are favoured over independent equations.

Suggested Citation

  • K Alec Chrystal & Paul Mizen, 2001. "Consumption, money and lending: a joint model for the UK household sector," Bank of England working papers 134, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:134
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/2001/wp134.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Bardsen, G. & Fisher, P.G., 1993. "The Importance of Being Structured," Papers 02-93, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
    3. Lewis, Mervyn K. & Mizen, Paul D., 2000. "Monetary Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198290629, Decembrie.
    4. Mizen, Paul, 1997. "Microfoundations for a Stable Demand for Money Function," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 1202-1212, July.
    5. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    6. Cuthbertson, Keith & Barlow, David, 1990. "The Determination of Liquid Asset Holdings of the U.K. Personal Sector," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(4), pages 348-360, December.
    7. Mark S Astley & Andrew G Haldane, 1995. "Money as an Indicator," Bank of England working papers 35, Bank of England.
    8. Cuthbertson, Keith & Taylor, Mark P, 1987. "The Demand for Money: A Dynamic Rational Expectations Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388a), pages 65-76, Supplemen.
    9. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    10. Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 1992. "On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(2), pages 187-207, May.
    11. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1995. "Is there a \\"credit channel\\" for monetary policy?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 63-77.
    12. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1990. "Evaluating Dynamic Econometric Models By Encompassing The Var," Economics Series Working Papers 99102, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    15. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    16. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    17. Boswijk, H. Peter, 1995. "Efficient inference on cointegration parameters in structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 133-158, September.
    18. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, Decembrie.
    19. Ericsson, Neil R., 1995. "Conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 159-171, September.
    20. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1994. "Is There a `Credit Channel' for Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 4977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Peter Boswijk, H., 1994. "Testing for an unstable root in conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 37-60, July.
    22. Deaton, Angus, 1992. "Understanding Consumption," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288244, Decembrie.
    23. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    24. Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 1995. "Partial versus full system modelling of cointegrated systems an empirical illustration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 177-210, September.
    25. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1995. "Is there a \"credit channel\" for monetary policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 63-77.
    26. Drake, Leigh & Chrystal, K Alec, 1994. "Company-Sector Money Demand: New Evidence on the Existence of a Stable Long-Run Relationship for the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(3), pages 479-494, August.
    27. Wickens, Michael R., 1996. "Interpreting cointegrating vectors and common stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 255-271, October.
    28. Muellbauer, John, 1994. "The Assessment: Consumer Expenditure," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 10(2), pages 1-41, Summer.
    29. Ryland Thomas, 1997. "The Demand for M4: A Sectoral Analysis. Part 1 - The Personal Sector," Bank of England working papers 61, Bank of England.
    30. Andrew Brigden & Paul Mizen, 1999. "Money, credit and investment in UK corporate sector," Bank of England working papers 100, Bank of England.
    31. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
    32. Bacchetta, Philippe & Gerlach, Stefan, 1997. "Consumption and credit constraints: International evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 207-238, October.
    33. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, Decembrie.
    34. Scott, Alasdair, 2003. "APPLIED MACROECONOMETRICS Carlo A. Favero Oxford University Press, 2001," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 313-315, April.
    35. Drake, Leigh & Chrystal, K Alec, 1997. "Personal Sector Money Demand in the UK," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 188-206, April.
    36. Ryland Thomas, 1997. "The Demand for M4: A Sectoral Analysis Part 2 The Corporate Sector," Bank of England working papers 62, Bank of England.
    37. Church, Keith B & Smith, Peter N & Wallis, Kenneth F, 1994. "Econometric Evaluation of Consumers' Expenditure Equations," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 10(2), pages 71-85, Summer.
    38. Cheng Hsiao, 1997. "Cointegration and Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 647-670, May.
    39. Paul Fisher & Juna Vega, 1993. "An Empirical Analysis of M4 in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 21, Bank of England.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simon Hall, 2001. "Financial accelerator effects in UK business cycles," Bank of England working papers 150, Bank of England.
    2. Vega-Lacorte, Juliana E. & Watkins-Fassler, Karen., 2013. "Crédito al consumo en Argentina durante periodos normales y de crisis económicas," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(16), pages 51-76, primer se.
    3. Franz Seitz & Julian von Landesberger, 2014. "Household Money Holdings in the Euro Area: An Explorative Investigation," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 83-115, November.
    4. K. Alec Chrystal & Paul Mizen, 2005. "Other financial corporations: Cinderella or ugly sister of empirical monetary economics?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 63-80.
    5. John Muellbauer, 2016. "Macroeconomics and Consumption," Economics Series Working Papers Paper-811, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Ершов Эмиль Борисович & Кадрева Ольга Николаевна, 2015. "Моделирование Организованных Сбережений Населения России: Макроподход, Учет Кредита," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 19(3), pages 349-385.
    7. Franz Seitz & Julian von Landesberger, 2012. "Household Money Demand: The Euro Area Case," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 148(III), pages 409-438, September.
    8. Bruggeman, Annick & Donnay, Marie, 2003. "A monthly monetary model with banking intermediation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    9. Fernando Nieto, 2007. "The determinants of household credit in Spain," Working Papers 0716, Banco de España.
    10. Muellbauer, John & Geiger, Felix & Rupprecht, Manuel, 2016. "The housing market, household portfolios and the German consumer," Working Paper Series 1904, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. K. Alec Chrystal & Paul Mizen, 2005. "Other financial corporations: Cinderella or ugly sister of empirical monetary economics?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 63-80.
    2. Ryland Thomas, 1997. "The Demand for M4: A Sectoral Analysis Part 2 The Corporate Sector," Bank of England working papers 62, Bank of England.
    3. Ryland Thomas, 1997. "The Demand for M4: A Sectoral Analysis. Part 1 - The Personal Sector," Bank of England working papers 61, Bank of England.
    4. Andrew Brigden & Paul Mizen, 2004. "Interactions between Money, Lending and Investment in the UK Private Non‐Financial Corporate Sector," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(1), pages 72-99, January.
    5. Andrew Brigden & Paul Mizen, 1999. "Money, credit and investment in UK corporate sector," Bank of England working papers 100, Bank of England.
    6. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    7. Rault, Christophe, 2005. "Further Results on Weak Exogeneity in Vector Error Correction Models," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 25(2), November.
    8. Chrystal, Alec & Mizen, Paul, 2002. "Modelling credit in the transmission mechanism of the United Kingdom," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 2131-2154, November.
    9. Christophe RAULT, 2007. "Une synthèse de l'exogénéité dans les modèles Vectoriels à Correction d'Erreurs," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1723, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    10. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502, Decembrie.
    11. Jacqueline Pradel & Christophe Rault, 2003. "Exogeneity in Vector Error Correction Models with Purely Exogenous Long‐Run Paths," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 629-653, December.
    12. Sunil Sharma & Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 417-436.
    13. Baffes, John & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1997. "Single-equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1800, The World Bank.
    14. G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
    15. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2002. "Separation, Weak Exogeneity, And P-T Decomposition In Cointegrated Var Systems With Common Features," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 273-307.
    16. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    17. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    18. Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 1995. "Partial versus full system modelling of cointegrated systems an empirical illustration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 177-210, September.
    19. Enrique Moral-Benito & Luis Serv鮠, 2015. "Testing weak exogeneity in cointegrated panels," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(30), pages 3216-3228, June.
    20. Herwartz, Helmut & Neumann, Michael H., 2005. "Bootstrap inference in systems of single equation error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 165-193, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:134. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Digital Media Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boegvuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.