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The Demand for M4: A Sectoral Analysis. Part 1 - The Personal Sector


  • Ryland Thomas


Interpreting movements in monetary aggregates is an important part of the assessment of inflationary pressures in the UK's current monetary policy framework. This paper is the first part of a follow-up study to Fisher and Vega in 1993, examining the determinants of personal sector holdings of M4 in the UK and the role they play in the transmission mechanism. A joint-model of personal sector M4 and consumption is developed which offers some useful insights into the role of money in the economy. In the long run both money and consumption are found to be related to income, wealth and interest rates, the estimated relationships being fairly standard theoretical specifications. But the model also reveals that money and consumption interact strongly in the short run, the nature of the interaction depending on the type of disturbance that has occurred. Positive disturbances to consumption initially lead to a fall in money balances, so that there is a negative relationship between money and consumption in the short-run. This is consistent with money's role as a "buffer-stock" which absorbs short-term fluctuations in spending. Positive disturbances to money, on the other hand, lead to a rise in consumption in the first instance, so that the short-run relationship is positive. This would be consistent with a number of possible liquidity and credit effects on consumption. These different relationships have important implications for interpreting movements in personal sector money holdings. Faster money growth may be consistent with a number of different underlying disturbances, each requiring its own policy response.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryland Thomas, 1997. "The Demand for M4: A Sectoral Analysis. Part 1 - The Personal Sector," Bank of England working papers 61, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:61

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    14. Milbourne, Ross, 1988. " Disequilibrium Buffer Stock Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 187-208.
    15. Ryland Thomas, 1997. "The Demand for M4: A Sectoral Analysis Part 2 The Corporate Sector," Bank of England working papers 62, Bank of England.
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    Cited by:

    1. K. Alec Chrystal & Paul Mizen, 2005. "Other financial corporations: Cinderella or ugly sister of empirical monetary economics?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 63-80.
    2. McLeay, Michael & Radia, Amar & Thomas, Ryland, 2014. "Money creation in the modern economy," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(1), pages 14-27.
    3. Cloyne, James & Thomas, Ryland & Tuckett, Alex & Wills, Samuel, 2015. "A sectoral framework for analyzing money, credit and unconventional monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 556, Bank of England.
    4. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John & Prinsloo, Johan, 2006. "Estimating the Balance Sheet of the Personal Sector in an Emerging Market Country: South Africa 1975-2003," WIDER Working Paper Series 099, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Franz Seitz & Julian von Landesberger, 2014. "Household Money Holdings in the Euro Area: An Explorative Investigation," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 83-115, November.
    6. Shamik Dhar & Stephen P Millard, 2000. "A limited participation model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 117, Bank of England.
    7. Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Nobili & Patrizia Passiglia, 2007. "The sectoral distribution of money supply in the Euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 627, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. K Alec Chrystal & Paul Mizen, 2001. "Consumption, money and lending: a joint model for the UK household sector," Bank of England working papers 134, Bank of England.
    9. James Cloyne & Ryland Thomas & Alex Tuckett & Samuel Wills, 2015. "An Empirical Sectoral Model of Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Impact of QE," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 51-82, September.
    10. Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Nobili & Patrizia Passiglia, 2011. "Assessing excess liquidity in the euro area: the role of sectoral distribution of money," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(23), pages 3213-3230.
    11. Norbert Janssen, 1998. "The demand for M0 in the United Kingdom reconsidered: some specification issues," Bank of England working papers 83, Bank of England.
    12. Chrystal, Alec & Mizen, Paul, 2002. "Modelling credit in the transmission mechanism of the United Kingdom," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 2131-2154, November.
    13. Ryland Thomas, 1997. "The Demand for M4: A Sectoral Analysis Part 2 The Corporate Sector," Bank of England working papers 62, Bank of England.

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