IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aiy/jnljtr/v7y2021i1p39-54.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projected shortfall in personal income tax revenues of regional governments in Russia due to the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Maria O. Kakaulina

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has put a great strain on the Russian economy and budget revenue. The study aims at furnishing an estimate of losses in personal income tax revenue in regional government budgets in 2020–2023 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to investigate the shortfall in tax revenues, three factors were studied: the amount of damage caused by the COVID-19 outbreak to the whole economic system; the sensitivity of the state revenue base to the crisis; the sensitivity of regional tax revenue to the revenue base. The study was based on the annual reports of the Federal Tax Service of Russia, Rosstat data, Forecast of the Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation, and data from the “National action plan to ensure the recovery of employment and incomes of population, economic growth and long-term structural changes in the economy”. It was found that recession will lead to a significant reduction in people’s income over the given period. As a result, personal income tax revenues will decrease. The budget losses will reach 416.6 billion rubles by the end of the 2020 fiscal year. This is equivalent to 0.4% of GDP and 9.7% of total income from personal income tax in an economic situation unmarred by the pandemic. The largest fall in public revenue is expected in the regions which stand out in regard to personal income tax revenues per capita. The research results confirm the initial hypothesis that the negative impact of the pandemic on personal income tax revenues depends on the share of income tax revenues of a particular region or municipality. The findings can be used by the regional and municipal financial authorities for developing draft budgets for 2022 and the planning period of 2023–2024.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria O. Kakaulina, 2021. "Projected shortfall in personal income tax revenues of regional governments in Russia due to the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 7(1), pages 39-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:aiy:jnljtr:v:7:y:2021:i:1:p:39-54
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2021.7.1.089
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://jtr.urfu.ru/fileadmin/user_upload/site_15907/2021/Kakaulina.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2021.7.1.089?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2004. "The Income Elasticity of Tax Revenue: Estimates for Income and Consumption Taxes in the United Kingdom," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 25(1), pages 55-77, March.
    2. Jarosław Olejniczak, 2017. "Shares in Central Government Income Taxes as a Revenues Source of Urban Municipalities in Poland," Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, in: David Procházka (ed.), New Trends in Finance and Accounting, chapter 0, pages 239-250, Springer.
    3. Johny Creedy & Jose Felix Sanz-Sanz, 2010. "Income Tax Revenue Elasticities in Spain: Individual and Aggregate Measures," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1100, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Bill Robinson, 1987. "How buoyant is public revenue?," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 35-47, May.
    5. Max Gillman, 2021. "Income tax evasion: tax elasticity, welfare, and revenue," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(3), pages 533-566, June.
    6. Yolanda Kodrzycki, 2014. "Smoothing state tax revenues over the business cycle: gauging fiscal needs and opportunities," Working Papers 14-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elena G. Popkova & Aleksei V. Bogoviz & Svetlana V. Lobova & Abdula M. Chililov & Anastasia A. Sozinova & Bruno S. Sergi, 2022. "Changing entrepreneurial attitudes for mitigating the global pandemic’s social drama," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Acheson, Jean & Lawless, Martina & Lawlor, Donough & Tarrant, Oisín & Weymes, Laura, 2021. "Responsiveness of corporation tax revenues to taxable income: A firm-level approach," Papers WP715, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Yu kun Wang & Li Zhang, 2021. "Underground economy and GDP growth: Evidence from China’s tax reforms," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 7(1), pages 87-107.
    3. John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2001. "The Revenue Elasticity of Taxes in the UK," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2001n11, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Yota Deli & Derek Lambert & Martina Lawless & Kieran McQuinn & Edgar L. W. Morgenroth, 2017. "How Sensitive is Irish Income Tax Revenue to Underlying Economic Activity?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 317-336.
    5. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa & Umut Unal, 2021. "Estimating Policy-Corrected Long-Term and Short-Term Tax Elasticities for the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202112, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Acheson, Jean & Deli, Yota & Morgenroth, Edgar & Lambert, Derek & Murphy, Martin, 2018. "VAT revenue elasticities: an analytical approach," Papers WP596, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. Manjón Álvarez, Adrián M., 2018. "Elasticidades tributarias dinámicas: evidencias a corto plazo y largo plazo en Bolivia (1990-2018)," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 31, pages 100-134, May.
    8. Prammer, Doris, 2019. "How does population ageing impact on personal income taxes and social security contributions?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    9. Joaquim Sarmento, 2016. "The Determinants Of Value Added Tax Revenues In The European Union," Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, vol. 21(2), pages 79-99.
    10. David Cashin & Jamie Lenney & Byron Lutz & William Peterman, 2018. "Fiscal policy and aggregate demand in the USA before, during, and following the Great Recession," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(6), pages 1519-1558, December.
    11. Acheson, Jean & Deli, Yota & Lambert, Derek & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2017. "Income tax revenue elasticities in Ireland: an analytical approach," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS59, June.
    12. Muhammad Omer Farooq Jajja & Arshad Ali Bhatti, 2022. "Tax Evasion, Low Tax Revenue and Non-Compliance in Pakistan: A Focused Group Discussion," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(3), pages 289-298.
    13. Roshaiza Taha & Nanthakumar Loganathan, 2008. "Causality Between Tax Revenue And Government Spending In Malaysia," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 2(2), pages 63-73.
    14. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa & Umut Ünal, 2023. "Estimating policy-corrected long-term and short-term tax elasticities for the USA, Germany, and the United Kingdom," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 465-504, January.
    15. Reed, W. Robert & Rogers, Cynthia L & Skidmore, Mark, 2011. "On Estimating Marginal Tax Rates for U.S. States," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 64(1), pages 59-84, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aiy:jnljtr:v:7:y:2021:i:1:p:39-54. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalia Starodubets (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/seurfru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.