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Economic Uncertainty and Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Giray Gozgor
  • Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin
  • Peter Rangazas

Abstract

The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in income uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We examine this prediction using a new measure of economic uncertainty—the World Uncertainty Index—and focus on data from 126 countries for the period 1996–2017. The empirical findings indicate that uncertainty decreases the fertility rate, as suggested by theory. This evidence is robust to different model specifications and econometric techniques as well as to the inclusion of various controls. The evidence also indicates that changes in uncertainty may be a factor explaining why fertility is procyclical.

Suggested Citation

  • Giray Gozgor & Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Peter Rangazas, 2021. "Economic Uncertainty and Fertility," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages 373-399.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jhucap:doi:10.1086/715020
    DOI: 10.1086/715020
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    Cited by:

    1. Cem Işık & Ercan Sirakaya-Turk & Serdar Ongan, 2020. "Testing the efficacy of the economic policy uncertainty index on tourism demand in USMCA: Theory and evidence," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1344-1357, December.
    2. Giray Gozgor, 2020. "The Role of Economic Uncertainty in Rising Populism in the EU," CESifo Working Paper Series 8499, CESifo.
    3. Davide Furceri & Pietro Pizzuto & Khatereh Yarveisi, 2024. "The effect of pandemic crises on fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 1-30, March.
    4. Madia, Joan E. & Moscone, Francesco & Tabaghdehi, Asieh Hosseini & An, Jong-Chol & Lee, Changkeun, 2025. "Fertility decline and tax revenues in South Korea," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2).
    5. Fontaine, Idriss & Garabedian, Sabine & Vérèmes, Hélène, 2024. "Tropical cyclones and fertility: New evidence from developing countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    6. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Nurudeen Abu & Tayo P. Ogundunmade, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty in G7 countries: evidence of long-range dependence and cointegration," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 541-556, May.
    7. Aparajita Dasgupta & Anahita Karandikar & Devvrat Raghav, 2024. "Road Access, Fertility, and Child Health in Rural India," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 50(1), pages 117-147, March.
    8. Ziyu Guo & Muhammad Hafeez & Wenxin Wang & Md Abdul Kaium & Ahmer Bilal & Israt Zahan, 2023. "Is the economic uncertainty– human health relationship nonlinear? An empirical analysis for the China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(12), pages 1-17, December.
    9. Hartmann, Sven A., 2024. "Television and family demography: Evidence from a natural experiment in East Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Joan E. Madia & Francesco Moscone & Asieh Hosseini Tabaghdehi & Jong-Chol An & Changkeun Lee, 2024. "Fertility Decline and Tax Revenues in South Korea," FBK-IRVAPP Working Papers 2024-02, Research Institute for the Evaluation of Public Policies (IRVAPP), Bruno Kessler Foundation.
    11. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Dirk Konietzka & Philippe Lambert & Vincent Jerald Ramos, 2023. "Second Birth Fertility in Germany: Social Class, Gender, and the Role of Economic Uncertainty," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-27, December.
    12. Canh Phuc Nguyen & Christophe Schinckus & Thanh Dinh Su, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and demand for international tourism: An empirical study," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1415-1430, December.
    13. Sven A. Hartmann, 2024. "Television and family demography: Evidence from a natural experiment in East Germany," IAAEU Discussion Papers 202407, Institute of Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU).
    14. Berggren, Niclas & Bergh, Andreas & Nilsson, Therese, 2025. "Periods of uncertainty are linked to greater acceptance of minorities," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 772-785.
    15. Moscone, Francesco & Madia, Joan E. & Nicodemo, Catia & An, Jong-Chol & Lee, Changkeun, 2024. "Addressing fiscal uncertainty: Proposing policy pathways for enhancing economic growth and fertility rates in South Korea," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(3).
    16. Giray Gozgor, 2022. "The role of economic uncertainty in the rise of EU populism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 190(1), pages 229-246, January.
    17. Meng Zhang & Yao Tian & Muhammad Kamran Khan, 2025. "Time series approach to examine the impact of economic uncertainty, economic growth and financial development on human health," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2), pages 2067-2080, May.
    18. Kreyenfeld, Michaela & Konietzka, Dirk & Lambert, Philippe & Ramos, Vincent Jerald, 2022. "Second Birth Fertility in Germany: Social Class, Gender, and the Role of Economic Uncertainty," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2022023, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    19. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 159-184, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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