IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling female fertility using inflated count data models


  • Maria Melkersson

    () (SOFI, University of Stockholm, SE 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden)

  • Dan-Olof Rooth

    () (Department of Economics, University of Lund, SE 222 07 Lund, Sweden)


For modeling complete female fertility we propose a zero-and-two-inflated count data model, which accounts for a relative excess of both zero and two children. As the underlying distribution of counts we use the standard Poisson distribution and the more general Gamma count distribution. We compare our proposed model with standard count data models by using data on complete fertilities for a sample of Swedish women. The preferred specification for Swedish fertility data is the zero-and-two inflated Gamma count data model. The estimated "extra" probabilities of zero and two children, when modelled as individual specific probabilities, vary substantially across individuals, with mean of 0.05 and 0.16, respectively. These extra probabilities show that women who formed a family later in life have a higher probability of being childless, and women of our youngest cohort have a higher probability of forming a two-child family.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Melkersson & Dan-Olof Rooth, 2000. "Modeling female fertility using inflated count data models," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 189-203.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:13:y:2000:i:2:p:189-203
    Note: Received: 7 January 1999/Accepted: 19 May 1999

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Alfonso Miranda, 2010. "A double-hurdle count model for completed fertility data from the developing world," DoQSS Working Papers 10-01, Department of Quantitative Social Science - UCL Institute of Education, University College London.
    2. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00348829 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Llerena, Freddy, 2012. "Determinantes de la fecundidad en el Ecuador
      [Determinants of fertility in Ecuador]
      ," MPRA Paper 39887, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2012.
    4. Alison L. Booth & Hiau Joo Kee, 2009. "Intergenerational Transmission of Fertility Patterns," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(2), pages 183-208, April.
    5. Hossein Kavand & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2016. "Estimation of Health Care Demand and its Implication on Income Effects of Individuals," Carleton Economic Papers 16-01, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 26 Jun 2017.
    6. Guido Heineck, 2006. "The relationship between religion and fertility: Evidence from Austria," Papers on Economics of Religion 06/01, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    7. Degnet, Abebaw & Mburu, John & Holm-Müller, Karin, 2008. "Responding to an Income Shock through Increasing Forest Extraction: Survey Evidence from Ethiopian Coffee Farmers," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 17(2).
    8. Juan Carlos Parra A. & Martha Misas A. & Enrique López E., 2010. "Heterogeneidad en la fijación de precios en Colombia: Análisis de sus determinantes a partir de modelos de conteo," Borradores de Economia 628, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Löfström, Åsa & Westerberg, Thomas, 2006. "Variations in Fertility - a Consequense of Other Factors Besides Love?," Umeå Economic Studies 681, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    10. Thomas Baudin, 2012. "More on Religion and Fertility: The French Connection," Working Papers hal-00993310, HAL.
    11. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    12. Alfonso Miranda, 2008. "Planned fertility and family background: a quantile regression for counts analysis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(1), pages 67-81, January.
    13. Echávarri Aguinaga, Rebeca, 2009. "Education and the dynamics of family decisions," DFAEII Working Papers 2009-01, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    14. Massimiliano Bratti & Alfonso Miranda, 2010. "Endogenous Treatment Effects for Count Data Models with Sample Selection or Endogenous Participation," DoQSS Working Papers 10-05, Department of Quantitative Social Science - UCL Institute of Education, University College London, revised 10 Dec 2010.
    15. Alfonso Miranda, 2003. "Socio-economic characteristics, completed fertility, and the transition from low to high order parities in Mexico," Labor and Demography 0308001, EconWPA.
    16. repec:ijm:journl:v10:y:2017:i:1:p:73-105 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Thomas Baudin, 2015. "Religion and fertility: The French connection," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(13), pages 397-420, February.
    18. Souparno Ghosh & Alan E. Gelfand & Kai Zhu & James S. Clark, 2012. "The k-ZIG: Flexible Modeling for Zero-Inflated Counts," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 878-885, September.
    19. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    20. Kate J. Li & Duncan K. H. Fong & Susan H. Xu, 2011. "Managing Trade-in Programs Based on Product Characteristics and Customer Heterogeneity in Business-to-Business Markets," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 13(1), pages 108-123, October.
    21. repec:ijm:journl:v109:y:2017:i:1:p:73-105 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Fertility; inflated count data models;

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:13:y:2000:i:2:p:189-203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.