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Modeling female fertility using inflated count data models

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Melkersson

    () (SOFI, University of Stockholm, SE 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden)

  • Dan-Olof Rooth

    () (Department of Economics, University of Lund, SE 222 07 Lund, Sweden)

Abstract

For modeling complete female fertility we propose a zero-and-two-inflated count data model, which accounts for a relative excess of both zero and two children. As the underlying distribution of counts we use the standard Poisson distribution and the more general Gamma count distribution. We compare our proposed model with standard count data models by using data on complete fertilities for a sample of Swedish women. The preferred specification for Swedish fertility data is the zero-and-two inflated Gamma count data model. The estimated "extra" probabilities of zero and two children, when modelled as individual specific probabilities, vary substantially across individuals, with mean of 0.05 and 0.16, respectively. These extra probabilities show that women who formed a family later in life have a higher probability of being childless, and women of our youngest cohort have a higher probability of forming a two-child family.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Melkersson & Dan-Olof Rooth, 2000. "Modeling female fertility using inflated count data models," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 189-203.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:13:y:2000:i:2:p:189-203
    Note: Received: 7 January 1999/Accepted: 19 May 1999
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alfonso Miranda, 2010. "A double-hurdle count model for completed fertility data from the developing world," DoQSS Working Papers 10-01, Department of Quantitative Social Science - UCL Institute of Education, University College London.
    2. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00348829 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Llerena, Freddy, 2012. "Determinantes de la fecundidad en el Ecuador
      [Determinants of fertility in Ecuador]
      ," MPRA Paper 39887, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2012.
    4. Alison L. Booth & Hiau Joo Kee, 2009. "Intergenerational Transmission of Fertility Patterns," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(2), pages 183-208, April.
    5. Hossein Kavand & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2016. "Estimation of Health Care Demand and its Implication on Income Effects of Individuals," Carleton Economic Papers 16-01, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 26 Jun 2017.
    6. Guido Heineck, 2006. "The relationship between religion and fertility: Evidence from Austria," Papers on Economics of Religion 06/01, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    7. Degnet, Abebaw & Mburu, John & Holm-Müller, Karin, 2008. "Responding to an Income Shock through Increasing Forest Extraction: Survey Evidence from Ethiopian Coffee Farmers," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 17(2).
    8. Juan Carlos Parra A. & Martha Misas A. & Enrique López E., 2010. "Heterogeneidad en la fijación de precios en Colombia: Análisis de sus determinantes a partir de modelos de conteo," Borradores de Economia 628, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Löfström, Åsa & Westerberg, Thomas, 2006. "Variations in Fertility - a Consequense of Other Factors Besides Love?," Umeå Economic Studies 681, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    10. Thomas Baudin, 2012. "More on Religion and Fertility: The French Connection," Working Papers hal-00993310, HAL.
    11. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    12. Alfonso Miranda, 2008. "Planned fertility and family background: a quantile regression for counts analysis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(1), pages 67-81, January.
    13. Echávarri Aguinaga, Rebeca, 2009. "Education and the dynamics of family decisions," DFAEII Working Papers 2009-01, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    14. Massimiliano Bratti & Alfonso Miranda, 2010. "Endogenous Treatment Effects for Count Data Models with Sample Selection or Endogenous Participation," DoQSS Working Papers 10-05, Department of Quantitative Social Science - UCL Institute of Education, University College London, revised 10 Dec 2010.
    15. Alfonso Miranda, 2003. "Socio-economic characteristics, completed fertility, and the transition from low to high order parities in Mexico," Labor and Demography 0308001, EconWPA.
    16. repec:ijm:journl:v10:y:2017:i:1:p:73-105 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Thomas Baudin, 2015. "Religion and fertility: The French connection," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(13), pages 397-420, February.
    18. Souparno Ghosh & Alan E. Gelfand & Kai Zhu & James S. Clark, 2012. "The k-ZIG: Flexible Modeling for Zero-Inflated Counts," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 878-885, September.
    19. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    20. Kate J. Li & Duncan K. H. Fong & Susan H. Xu, 2011. "Managing Trade-in Programs Based on Product Characteristics and Customer Heterogeneity in Business-to-Business Markets," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 13(1), pages 108-123, October.
    21. repec:ijm:journl:v109:y:2017:i:1:p:73-105 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; inflated count data models;

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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