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Fertility choice and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the U.S

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  • George Hondroyiannis
  • Evangelia Papapetrou

Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence to support the proposition of Barro and Becker [1989] that fertility depends positively on the world's long-term real interest rates and negatively on real wages in an economy linked to an international capital market. The empirical evidence suggests that there is no long-run relationship among fertility choice, real wages, long-term real interest rates, and output growth in the U.S. over the period 1960–95. However, when estimating a VAR model and employing the variance decomposition analysis and the impulse response functions, the empirical results support the endogeneity of fertility choice and the proposition that real wages, long-term real interest rates, and output growth is related to changes in fertility choice. The empirical results have important policy implications and provide an explanation for the decline of fertility in Western countries mainly in the last three decades. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 1999

Suggested Citation

  • George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 1999. "Fertility choice and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the U.S," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 108-120, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:5:y:1999:i:1:p:108-120:10.1007/bf02295036
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02295036
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters,in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education (3rd Edition), pages 323-350 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ralph Lattimore & Clinton Pobke, 2008. "Recent Trends in Australian Fertility," Staff Working Papers 0806, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    2. Ross Guest & Robyn Swift, 2008. "Fertility, income inequality, and labour productivity," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 597-618, October.

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