IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/oxecpp/v60y2008i4p597-618.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fertility, income inequality, and labour productivity

Author

Listed:
  • Ross Guest
  • Robyn Swift

Abstract

There is mounting evidence of a complex system of multi-directional links between fertility, productivity and inequality. The contribution of this study is a multi-country analysis of these three variables as a simultaneous system in a VECM framework using annual time series data for the UK, USA, Australia, Japan, and Sweden. The results highlight some differences between countries in the relationships between the variables. For the UK and Australia, the VECM analysis reveals a long run relationship between fertility and productivity to which both fertility and productivity adjust. This calls into question pro-fertility policies in these countries that aim to offset the costs of population ageing, because an increase in fertility may be associated with lower productivity in the long run. The results for the USA suggest that raising productivity in the long run will be associated with a decrease in both inequality and fertility. No significant long run relationships were found for Japan and Sweden. Copyright 2008 , Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Ross Guest & Robyn Swift, 2008. "Fertility, income inequality, and labour productivity," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 597-618, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:60:y:2008:i:4:p:597-618
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpn003
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters,in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education (3rd Edition), pages 323-350 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1969. "Distribution of Income and Wealth among Individuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 382-397, July.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-397, August.
    4. Angus Deaton & Christina Paxson, 1997. "The effects of economic and population growth on national saving and inequality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 34(1), pages 97-114, February.
    5. Galor, Oded & Zang, Hyoungsoo, 1997. "Fertility, income distribution, and economic growth: Theory and cross-country evidence," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 197-229, May.
    6. David de la Croix & Matthias Doepke, 2003. "Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1091-1113, September.
    7. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10091 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Shujie Yao, 1999. "On the decomposition of Gini coefficients by population class and income source: a spreadsheet approach and application," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(10), pages 1249-1264.
    9. Ross Guest & Anita Doraisami, 1994. "The Impact Of Inflation, Unemployment And Secular Influences On The Distribution Of Personal Taxable Incomes In Australia," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 13(4), pages 11-22, December.
    10. Cecilia Garcia-Penalosa & Eve Caroli & Philippe Aghion, 1999. "Inequality and Economic Growth: The Perspective of the New Growth Theories," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1615-1660, December.
    11. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25.
    12. Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Growth, Income Distribution, and Democracy: What the Data Say," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 149-187, June.
    13. Soren Johansen, 2002. "A Small Sample Correction for the Test of Cointegrating Rank in the Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1929-1961, September.
    14. Johansen, S ren, 2000. "A Bartlett Correction Factor For Tests On The Cointegrating Relations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(05), pages 740-778, October.
    15. Barro, Robert J, 2000. "Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-32, March.
    16. Shujie Yao, 1997. "Decomposition of Gini coefficients by income factors: a new approach and application," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 27-31.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    18. Andrew Leigh, 2005. "Deriving Long-Run Inequality Series from Tax Data," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(s1), pages 58-70, August.
    19. Andrea Brandolini & Anthony B. Atkinson, 2001. "Promise and Pitfalls in the Use of "Secondary" Data-Sets: Income Inequality in OECD Countries As a Case Study," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 771-799, September.
    20. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    21. Kristin J. Forbes, 2000. "A Reassessment of the Relationship between Inequality and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 869-887, September.
    22. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 1999. "Fertility choice and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the U.S," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 108-120, February.
    23. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dierk Herzer, 2016. "Unions and Income Inequality: A Heterogeneous Panel Co-integration and Causality Analysis," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(3), pages 318-346, September.
    2. Meltem Ucal & Alfred Albert Haug & Mehmet Hüseyin Bilgin, 2016. "Income inequality and FDI: evidence with Turkish data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(11), pages 1030-1045, March.
    3. Mathias Klein, 2015. "Inequality and household debt: a panel cointegration analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(2), pages 391-412, May.
    4. Christopoulos, Dimitris & McAdam, Peter, 2017. "Do financial reforms help stabilize inequality?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 45-61.
    5. Dierk Herzer & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2013. "Inward and outward FDI and income inequality: evidence from Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(2), pages 395-422, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:60:y:2008:i:4:p:597-618. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/oep .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.