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Analysis of the determinants of fertility decline in the Czech Republic

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  • Stephan Klasen

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  • Andrey Launov

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Abstract

In this paper we study the decline in total fertility rates in the Czech Republic during the transition process. To identify transition-specific features of this decline we use a multiperiod model of birth process and apply it to the family and fertility survey of 1998. In a standard duration analysis setting the model allows for time-dependence of information sets, on which the decision about the next birth is made. It also enables to estimate probabilities of early exit from childbearing. In this work we find that the negative effect of transition on TFR is mostly translated through a sharply increased negative influence of higher education on fertility, and through the apparent lack of adequate childcare facilities.
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Suggested Citation

  • Stephan Klasen & Andrey Launov, 2006. "Analysis of the determinants of fertility decline in the Czech Republic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 25-54, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:19:y:2006:i:1:p:25-54
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-005-0030-2
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00148-005-0030-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francesco C. Billari & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Patterns of lowest-low fertility in Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-040, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Hotz, V-J & Kerman, J-A & Willis, R-J, 1996. "The Economics of Fertility in Developed Countries : A Survey," Papers 96-09, RAND - Labor and Population Program.
    3. Heckman, James J & Walker, James R, 1990. "The Third Birth in Sweden," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 3(4), pages 235-275, December.
    4. Danièle Meulders & Siv Gustavsson, 2001. "Gender and the labour market: econometric evidence on obstacles in achieving gender equality," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7736, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Francisco Covas & J.M.C. Santos Silva, 2000. "A modified hurdle model for completed fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 173-188.
    6. Barmby, T & Cigno, A, 1990. "A Sequential Probability Model of Fertility Patterns," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 31-51, April.
    7. Weiren Wang & Felix Famoye, 1997. "Modeling household fertility decisions with generalized Poisson regression," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 10(3), pages 273-283.
    8. Heckman, James J & Walker, James R, 1990. "The Relationship between Wages and Income and the Timing and Spacing of Births: Evidence from Swedish Longitudinal Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1411-1441, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lara Tavares, 2008. "Who delays childbearing? The relationships between fertility, education and personality traits," Working Papers 009, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    2. Kalabichina, Irina E. & Tyndik, Alla, 2014. "Does current demographic policy in Russia impact on fertility of different educational groups?," EconStor Preprints 121850, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    3. Brainerd, Elizabeth, 2010. "The Demographic Transformation of Post-Socialist Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series 015, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Wang, Qingfeng & Sun, Xu, 2016. "The Role of Socio-political and Economic Factors in Fertility Decline: A Cross-country Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 360-370.
    5. Wen-Yi Chen, 2013. "Does Housing Cost Affect Birth Rates in Taiwan? The ADL Test for Threshold Co-integration," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 90-103, October.
    6. repec:spr:soinre:v:134:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-016-1431-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    8. Wen-Yi Chen, 2013. "Do caesarean section rates ‘catch-up’? Evidence from 14 European countries," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 328-340, December.
    9. Olfa Frini & Christophe Muller, 2017. "Fertility Regulation Behavior: Sequential Decisions in Tunisia," Working Papers halshs-01624778, HAL.
    10. Kryštof Zeman, 2007. "Transition of nuptiality and fertility onset in the Czech Republic since the 1990s: the role of women’s education and its expansion," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2007-017, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    11. repec:rfh:bbejor:v:6:y:2017:i:4:p:166-174 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Tamás Bartus & Lívia Murinkó & Ivett Szalma & Bernadett Szél, 2013. "The effect of education on second births in Hungary," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(1), pages 1-32, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic transition; Fertility decline; Czech Republic; Multistate model of birth process; J13; J11;

    JEL classification:

    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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