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A modified hurdle model for completed fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco Covas

    (Instituto Nacional de Estati´stica, Lisboa, Portugal)

  • J.M.C. Santos Silva

    () (ISEG, Universidade TÊcnica de Lisboa, R. do Quelhas 6, 1200 Lisboa, Portugal)

Abstract

In this paper it is argued that models for completed fertility have to take into consideration that childless couples and couples with an only child are qualitatively different from couples with two or more children. Indeed, these differences may be the cause of the underdispersion that characterizes completed fertility data. An empirical illustration using Portuguese data suggests that accounting for the qualitative difference between having zero, one, or more children leads to considerable improvements over a model of the type generally used to describe this sort of data.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Covas & J.M.C. Santos Silva, 2000. "A modified hurdle model for completed fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 173-188.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:13:y:2000:i:2:p:173-188
    Note: Received: 6 July 1998/Accepted: 14 January 1999
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alfonso Miranda, 2010. "A double-hurdle count model for completed fertility data from the developing world," DoQSS Working Papers 10-01, Department of Quantitative Social Science - UCL Institute of Education, University College London.
    2. Mohamed Amara, 2015. "Multilevel Modelling of Individual Fertility Decisions in Tunisia: Household and Regional Contextual Effects," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 124(2), pages 477-499, November.
    3. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00348829 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. David E Giles, 2010. "Hermite regression analysis of multi-modal count data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 2936-2945.
    5. Isabel Proenca & Isabel Menes, "undated". "Measuring the Average Per Day Net Benefit of Non-consumptive Wildlife - Associated Recreation For a National Park: a Count-Data Travel Cost Approach," Regional and Urban Modeling 283600078, EcoMod.
    6. Alison L. Booth & Hiau Joo Kee, 2009. "Intergenerational Transmission of Fertility Patterns," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(2), pages 183-208, April.
    7. Tamura, Robert & Simon, Curtis, 2017. "Secular Fertility Declines, Baby Booms, And Economic Growth: International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(07), pages 1601-1672, October.
    8. Alfonso Miranda, 2003. "Socio-economic characteristics, completed fertility, and the transition from low to high order parities in Mexico," Labor and Demography 0308001, EconWPA.
    9. Marwân-al-Qays Bousmah, 2017. "The effect of child mortality on fertility behaviors is non-linear: new evidence from Senegal," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 93-113, March.
    10. Simon, Curtis J. & Tamura, Robert, 2009. "Do higher rents discourage fertility? Evidence from U.S. cities, 1940-2000," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 33-42, January.
    11. Isabel Mendes & Isabel Proença, 2009. "Measuring the Social Recreation Per-Day Net Benefit of Wildlife Amenities of a National Park: A Count-Data Travel Cost Approach," Working Papers Department of Economics 2009/35, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    12. Stephan Klasen & Andrey Launov, 2006. "Analysis of the determinants of fertility decline in the Czech Republic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 25-54, February.
    13. Alfonso Miranda, 2008. "Planned fertility and family background: a quantile regression for counts analysis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(1), pages 67-81, January.
    14. Alfonso Miranda, 2004. "FIML estimation of an endogenous switching model for count data," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(1), pages 40-49, March.
    15. Thomas Baudin, 2015. "Religion and fertility: The French connection," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(13), pages 397-420, February.
    16. Kevin M. Murphy & Curtis J. Simon & Robert Tamura, 2011. "Black and White Fertility, Differential Baby Booms: The Value of Civil Rights (Equal Opportunity for Education)," 2011 Meeting Papers 238, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Jörgen Hellström, 2006. "A bivariate count data model for household tourism demand," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 213-226.
    18. Eschelbach Martina, 2015. "Family Culture and Fertility Outcomes – Evidence from American Siblings," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(3), pages 246-267, June.
    19. Westerberg, Thomas, 2006. "MoreWork, Less Kids - The Relationship Between Market Experience and Number of Children," Umeå Economic Studies 682, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    20. Márton Varga, 2014. "The effect of education, family size, unemployment and childcare availability on birth stopping and timing," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 13(2), pages 95-115, August.
    21. Naz, Ghazala & Nilsen, Øivind Anti & Vagstad, Steinar, 2002. "Education and completed fertility in Norway," Working Papers in Economics 18/02, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    22. Westerberg, Thomas, 2006. "Two Papers On Fertility - The Case Of Sweden," Umeå Economic Studies 683, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    23. Echávarri Aguinaga, Rebeca, 2009. "Education and the dynamics of family decisions," DFAEII Working Papers 2009-01, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    24. Georgios Papadopoulos, 2013. "Immigration Status and Victimization: Evidence from the British Crime Survey," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 042, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Count data; generalized poisson; hurdle models; underdispersion;

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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