IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2013i3p90-103.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does Housing Cost Affect Birth Rates in Taiwan? The ADL Test for Threshold Co-integration

Author

Listed:
  • Wen-Yi Chen

    (Department of Senior Citizen Service Management, National Taichung University of Science and Technology, Taichung, Taiwan.)

Abstract

This study applied the ADL threshold co-integration model to investigate the relationship between fertility and housing cost in Taiwan. Our empirical results were in favor of the threshold co-integration relationship between crude birth rate and cost of childbearing, such as housing cost and opportunity cost. The asymmetric adjustment process of fertility toward the long-run equilibrium was verified. In general, the effects of housing cost and opportunity cost on fertility in the regime of upper threshold were more significant than that in the regime of lower threshold. Recognizing that housing cost is a major cost of childbearing in terms of family formation, the housing price policy should not be managed from the perspective of the equity of housing affordability but from the perspective of how to maintain the social security.

Suggested Citation

  • Wen-Yi Chen, 2013. "Does Housing Cost Affect Birth Rates in Taiwan? The ADL Test for Threshold Co-integration," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 90-103, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:3:p:90-103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef3_13/rjef3_2013p90-103.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dettling, Lisa J. & Kearney, Melissa S., 2014. "House prices and birth rates: The impact of the real estate market on the decision to have a baby," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 82-100.
    2. James Feyrer & Bruce Sacerdote & Ariel Dora Stern, 2008. "Will the Stork Return to Europe and Japan? Understanding Fertility within Developed Nations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Pedro Mira & Namkee Ahn, 2002. "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(4), pages 667-682.
    5. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2010. "A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1425-1438.
    6. George Kapetanios, 2005. "Unit‐root testing against the alternative hypothesis of up to m structural breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 123-133, January.
    7. Palm, Franz C. & Smeekes, Stephan & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2010. "A Sieve Bootstrap Test For Cointegration In A Conditional Error Correction Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 647-681, June.
      • Arnold Zellner & Franz C. Palm, 2000. "Correction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1293-1294, September.
    8. Stephan Klasen & Andrey Launov, 2006. "Analysis of the determinants of fertility decline in the Czech Republic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 25-54, February.
    9. Krinsky, Itzhak & Robb, A Leslie, 1991. "Three Methods for Calculating the Statistical Properties of Elasticities: A Comparison," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 199-209.
    10. George Kapetanios, 2005. "Unit‐root testing against the alternative hypothesis of up to m structural breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 123-133, January.
    11. John Ermisch, 1988. "Econometric Analysis of Birth Rate Dynamics in Britain," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 23(4), pages 563-576.
    12. Jing Li & Junsoo Lee, 2010. "ADL tests for threshold cointegration," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 241-254, July.
    13. Cheng, Benjamin S. & Nwachukwu, Savior L. S., 1997. "The effect of education on fertility in Taiwan: A time series analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 95-99, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sojung Lim, 2021. "Socioeconomic differentials in fertility in South Korea," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(39), pages 941-978.
    2. Feng-Li Lin & Wen-Yi Chen, 2020. "Did the Consumption Voucher Scheme Stimulate the Economy? Evidence from Smooth Time-Varying Cointegration Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-16, June.
    3. Tsung Huang & Tsun-Feng Chiang & Jiun-Nan Pan, 2015. "Fertility and Crime: Evidence from Spatial Analysis of Taiwan," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 319-327, September.
    4. Yu-Hu LIN & Wen-Yi CHEN, 2018. "On the Relationship between Business Cycle and Fertility Rate in Taiwan: Evidence from the Nonlinear Cointegration Methodology," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 140-156, December.
    5. Xiao-Cui Yin & Chi-Wei Su, 2021. "House Prices and China's Birth Rate - A Note," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-4.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. EVRIM MANDACI, Pinar & CAGLI, Efe Caglar, 2016. "Who Drives Whom? Investigating The Relationship Between The Major Stock Markets," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 20(2), pages 6-24.
    2. Namkee Ahn & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2020. "Analysis of fertility using cohort-specific socio-economic data," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 711-733, September.
    3. Aviral Tiwari, 2014. "Unemployment hysteresis in Australia: evidence using nonlinear and stationarity tests with breaks," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 681-695, March.
    4. Suresh K. G. & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Anto Joseph, 2012. "Are the emerging bric stock markets efficient?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1261-1271.
    5. Mohamed Amine Boutabba, 2013. "The impact of financial development, income, energy and trade on carbon emissions: Evidence from the Indian economy," Documents de recherche 13-05, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    6. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Multivariate Granger Causality and the Dynamic Relationship between Health Care Spending, Income and Relative Price of Health Care in Malaysia," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 52(2), pages 199-214, December.
    7. Dierk HERZER & Felicitas NOWAK‐LEHMANN D. & Boriss SILIVERSTOVS, 2006. "Export‐Led Growth In Chile: Assessing The Role Of Export Composition In Productivity Growth," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(3), pages 306-328, September.
    8. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "Testing the intertemporal sustainability of current account in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the top deficit countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 365-379.
    9. Claude Diebolt & Cédric Doliger, 2005. "Becker vs. Easterlin. Education, Fertility and Growth in France after World War II," Working Papers 05-03, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    10. Héctor Bellido & Miriam Marcén, 2019. "Fertility and the business cycle: the European case," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1289-1319, December.
    11. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    12. Yu-Hu LIN & Wen-Yi CHEN, 2018. "On the Relationship between Business Cycle and Fertility Rate in Taiwan: Evidence from the Nonlinear Cointegration Methodology," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 140-156, December.
    13. Alexeev, Vitali & Maynard, Alex, 2012. "Localized level crossing random walk test robust to the presence of structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3322-3344.
    14. Debi P Bal & Badri N Rath, 2019. "Nonlinear causality between crude oil price and exchange rate: A comparative study of China and India - A Reassessment," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 592-604.
    15. Hippolyte d'Albis & Angela Luci Greulich & Grégory Ponthière, 2015. "Avoir un enfant plus tard: Enjeux sociodémographiques du report des naissances," Post-Print halshs-01245523, HAL.
    16. Hippolyte D'Albis & Angela Greulich & Grégory Ponthière, 2015. "AVOIR UN ENFANT PLUS TARD Enjeux sociodémographiques du report des naissances," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01298929, HAL.
    17. Herzer Dierk, 2005. "Exportdiversifizierung und Wirtschaftswachstum in Chile / Export Diversification and Economic Growth in Chile: Eine ökonometrische Analyse / An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 225(2), pages 163-180, April.
    18. Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Kyriaki Kosmidou & Dimitrios Kousenidis & Victoria Patsika, 2019. "The investigation of the dynamic linkages between real estate market and stock market in Greece," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 647-669, May.
    19. Dierk Herzer, 2005. "Does Trade Increase Total Factor Productivity: Cointegration Evidence for Chile," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 115, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Benjamin Cheng, 1999. "Cointegration and causality between fertility and female labor participation in Taiwan: A multivariate approach," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(4), pages 422-434, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ADL test; threshold co-integration; house price; low fertility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:3:p:90-103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.