A Sieve Bootstrap Test for Cointegration in a Conditional Error Correction Model
In this paper we propose a bootstrap version of the Wald test for cointegration in a single-equation conditional error correction model. The multivariate sieve bootstrap is used to deal with dependence in the series. We show that the introduced bootstrap test is asymptotically valid.We also analyze the small sample properties of our test by simulation and compare it with the asymptotic test and several alternative bootstrap tests. The bootstrap test offers significant improvements in terms of size properties over the asymptotic test, while having similar power properties. It also performs at least as well as the alternative bootstrap tests considered in terms of size and power.The sensitivity of the bootstrap test to the allowance for deterministic components is also investigated. Simulation results show that the tests with sufficient deterministic componentsincluded are insensitive to the true value of the trends in the model, and retain correct size.
|Date of creation:||2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht|
Phone: +31 (0)43 38 83 830
Web page: http://www.maastrichtuniversity.nl/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chang, Yoosoon & Park, Joon & Song, Kevin, 2002.
"Bootstrapping Cointegrating Regressions,"
2002-04, Rice University, Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Paparoditis, Efstathios, 1996. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive and Moving Average Parameter Estimates of Infinite Order Vector Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 277-296, May.
- Palm, F.C. & Smeekes, S. & Urbain, J.R.Y.J., 2006.
"Bootstrap unit root tests: comparison and extensions,"
015, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
- Franz C. Palm & Stephan Smeekes & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2008. "Bootstrap Unit-Root Tests: Comparison and Extensions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 371-401, 03.
- Zivot, Eric, 2000. "The Power Of Single Equation Tests For Cointegration When The Cointegrating Vector Is Prespecified," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(03), pages 407-439, June.
- Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992.
"The Power of Cointegration Tests,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
- Yoosoon Chang & Joon Y. Park, 2003. "A Sieve Bootstrap For The Test Of A Unit Root," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 379-400, 07.
- Seo, Myunghwan, 2006. "Bootstrap testing for the null of no cointegration in a threshold vector error correction model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 129-150, September.
- Carsten Trenkler, 2006.
"Bootstrapping Systems Cointegration Tests with a Prior Adjustment for Deterministic Terms,"
SFB 649 Discussion Papers
SFB649DP2006-012, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Trenkler, Carsten, 2009. "Bootstrapping Systems Cointegration Tests With A Prior Adjustment For Deterministic Terms," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(01), pages 243-269, February.
- Park, Joon Y., 2002. "An Invariance Principle For Sieve Bootstrap In Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 469-490, April.
- Peter Boswijk, H., 1994. "Testing for an unstable root in conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 37-60, July.
- Yoosoon Chang & Joon Park, 2002. "On The Asymptotics Of Adf Tests For Unit Roots," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 431-447.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1986.
"Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 2,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
819R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1987.
- Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1989. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 2," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 95-131, April.
- Pesavento, Elena, 2004.
"Analytical evaluation of the power of tests for the absence of cointegration,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 349-384, October.
- Pesavento, Elena, 2000. "Analytical Evaluation of the Power of Tests for the Absence of Cointegration," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4cq4773c, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Paparoditis, Efstathios & Politis, Dimitris N., 2005. "Bootstrapping Unit Root Tests for Autoregressive Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 545-553, June.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, June.
- Mantalos, Panagiotis & Shukur, Ghazi, 1998. "Size and Power of the Error Correction Model Cointegration Test. A Bootstrap Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 60(2), pages 249-55, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unm:umamet:2007054. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Charles Bollen)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.