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A Sieve Bootstrap Test For Cointegration In A Conditional Error Correction Model

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  • Palm, Franz C.
  • Smeekes, Stephan
  • Urbain, Jean-Pierre

Abstract

In this paper we propose a bootstrap version of the Wald test for cointegration in a single-equation conditional error correction model. The multivariate sieve bootstrap is used to deal with dependence in the series. We show that the introduced bootstrap test is asymptotically valid. We also analyze the small sample properties of our test by simulation and compare it with the asymptotic test and several alternative bootstrap tests. The bootstrap test offers significant improvements in terms of size properties over the asymptotic test, while having similar power properties. The sensitivity of the bootstrap test to the allowance for deterministic components is also investigated. Simulation results show that the tests with sufficient deterministic components included are insensitive to the true value of the trends in the model and retain correct size.

Suggested Citation

  • Palm, Franz C. & Smeekes, Stephan & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2010. "A Sieve Bootstrap Test For Cointegration In A Conditional Error Correction Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 647-681, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:26:y:2010:i:03:p:647-681_99
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    1. Franz C. Palm & Stephan Smeekes & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2008. "Bootstrap Unit-Root Tests: Comparison and Extensions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 371-401, March.
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    5. Mantalos, Panagiotis & Shukur, Ghazi, 1998. "Size and Power of the Error Correction Model Cointegration Test. A Bootstrap Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 60(2), pages 249-255, May.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. Trenkler, Carsten, 2009. "Bootstrapping Systems Cointegration Tests With A Prior Adjustment For Deterministic Terms," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(01), pages 243-269, February.
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    11. Pesavento, Elena, 2004. "Analytical evaluation of the power of tests for the absence of cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 349-384, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Vávra, Marián, 2017. "A distance test of normality for a wide class of stationary processes," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 2(C), pages 50-60.
    2. Marian Vavra, 2015. "On a Bootstrap Test for Forecast Evaluations," Working and Discussion Papers WP 5/2015, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    3. Gengenbach Christian & Urbain Jean-Pierre & Westerlund Joakim, 2008. "Panel Error Correction Testing with Global Stochastic Trends," Research Memorandum 051, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    4. Stephan Smeekes & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2014. "On the Applicability of the Sieve Bootstrap in Time Series Panels," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(1), pages 139-151, February.
    5. Eric Ghysels & J. Isaac Miller, 2015. "Testing for Cointegration with Temporally Aggregated and Mixed-Frequency Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(6), pages 797-816, November.
    6. repec:eee:ecolet:v:157:y:2017:i:c:p:1-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Stephan Smeekes, 2013. "Detrending Bootstrap Unit Root Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 869-891, November.
    8. Kascha, Christian & Trenkler, Carsten, 2011. "Bootstrapping the likelihood ratio cointegration test in error correction models with unknown lag order," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 1008-1017, February.
    9. Christian Bayer & Christoph Hanck, 2013. "Combining non-cointegration tests," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 83-95, January.
    10. Wen-Yi Chen, 2013. "Does Housing Cost Affect Birth Rates in Taiwan? The ADL Test for Threshold Co-integration," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 90-103, October.

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