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Anhaltende Divergenz bei Inflations- und Lohnentwicklung in der Eurozone: Gefahr für die Währungsunion?

Listed author(s):
  • Sebastian Dullien
  • Ulrich Fritsche

In this paper we investigate if the actual debate on divergences in the Euro area is indeed a reason to be concerned. We argue that the standard definition of divergence in terms of standard deviations is too narrow to capture the persistence in deviations in output, prices and wages. Our analysis reveals that deviations are indeed persistent in the Euro area. To investigate a control group, we present results for unit labour cost dynamics in (West) Germany's Länder and the United States' federal states. The results show that the recent development in the Euro area is indeed special and potentially harmful. Dieser Aufsatz untersucht, inwieweit die jüngste Debatte um mögliche Divergenzen in der Eurozone tatsächlich einen Grund zur Besorgnis aufzählt. Dabei wird argumentiert, dass die häufig übliche Definition von Divergenzen als die Veränderung der Standardabweichung bei Inflation und Wirtschaftswachstum um den Euro-Mittelwert zu kurz greift, da diese Definition nicht die Persistenz in der Entwicklung aufzeigt und damit gefährliche Verschiebungen im Niveau von Wirtschaftsleistung und relativem Preis- und Lohnniveau nicht erfasst. Eine dementsprechende Analyse zeigt, dass die Divergenzen in der Eurozone tatsächlich sehr hartnäckig sind. In einem Vergleich mit der Entwicklung von Lohnstückkosten mit jenen zwischen US-Staaten und deutschen Bundesländern zeigt sich zudem, dass die aktuellen Entwicklungen in der Eurozone tatsächlich für eine Währungsunion ungewöhnlich und potenziell wirtschaftlich schädlich sind.

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Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

Volume (Year): 76 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 56-76

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:76-4-6
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  1. Sven Langedijk & Werner Roeger, 2007. "Adjustment in EMU: A model-based analysis of country experiences," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 274, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  3. Kirsten Lommatzsch & Silke Tober, 2006. "Euro-Area Inflation: does the Balassa–Samuelson effect matter?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 105-136, November.
  4. Enderlein, Henrik, 2004. "Nationale Wirtschaftspolitik in der europäischen Währungsunion," Schriften aus dem Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung Köln, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies, volume 49, number 49.
  5. I. Arnold & C.J.M. Kool, 2004. "The Role of Inflation Differentials in Regional Adjustment: Evidence from the United States," Working Papers 04-13, Utrecht School of Economics.
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