EMU@10: Coping with Rotating Slumps
On the eve of the financial and economic crisis of 2008/09, the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) could look back to a decade of remarkable macroeconomic stability. Somewhat surprisingly, though, inflation differentials across member states have been substantial and persistent, causing large cumulative changes in relative price levels. This paper presents a stylized theoretical model of a monetary union which demonstrates how persistent inflation differentials can arise from inflation inertia in conjunction with the loss of monetary control on the national level. The interaction of inflation and output dynamics which is at the core of the model generates a pattern of ‘rotating slumps’ (a term coined by Blanchard 2007b). A number of implications are derived from the model which shed light on the observed behavior of cyclical conditions and inflation rates in the euro area. The paper concludes that the monetary-fiscal framework of EMU does not pay adequate attention to the need of dealing with internal macroeconomic tensions within the euro zone.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2009|
|Date of revision:||Jul 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Kollegiengebäde II, Platz der Alten Synagoge, 79085 Freiburg|
Phone: +49 +761 / 203 2301
Fax: +49 +761 / 203 2303
Web page: http://www.vwl.uni-freiburg.de/iwipol/sopo.htm
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tobin, James, 1975.
"Keynesian Models of Recession and Depression,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 65(2), pages 195-202, May.
- Kirsanova, Tatiana & Vines, David & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Within a Currency Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 5584, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Wickens, Michael R., 2007.
"Is the Euro Sustainable?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6337, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Miller, M & Sutherland, A, 1990.
"The 'Walters Critique' of the EMS - A Case of Inconsistent Expectations,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
363, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Miller, Marcus & Sutherland, Alan, 1991. "The "Walters Critique" of the EMS--A Case of Inconsistent Expectations?," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 59(0), pages 23-37, Supplemen.
- Miller, Marcus & Sutherland, Alan, 1990. "The `Walters' Critique of the EMS: A Case of Inconsistent Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- James Tobin, 1993.
"Price Flexibility and Output Stability: An Old Keynesian View,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 45-65, Winter.
- James Tobin, 1991. "Price Flexibility and Output Stability: An Old Keynesian View," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 994R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1991.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999.
"The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective,"
99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
- Sebastian Dullien & Ulrich Fritsche, 2007. "Anhaltende Divergenz bei Inflations- und Lohnentwicklung in der Eurozone: Gefahr für die Währungsunion?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(4), pages 56-76.
- Angeloni, Ignazio & Ehrmann, Michael, 2004.
"Euro area inflation differentials,"
Working Paper Series
0388, European Central Bank.
- John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- De Long, James Bradford & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986.
"Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1031-44, December.
- Carlin, Wendy & Soskice, David, 2005. "Macroeconomics: Imperfections, Institutions, and Policies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198776222, May.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2003. "The Laggard of Europe (CESifo Forum Vol. 4, Special Issue No. 1)," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 4(SPECIALIS), pages 01-32, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fre:wpaper:9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Günther G. Schulze)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.