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Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Within a Currency Union

  • Kirsanova, Tatiana
  • Vines, David
  • Wren-Lewis, Simon

We analyse the stability of countries within a monetary union in the face of asymmetric shocks, using a simple but widely applicable model. We show that members of the union may be subject to severe, and possibly unstable, cycles following asymmetric shocks if there is a significant backward looking element in inflation behaviour, and if real interest rates influence the level of aggregate demand. This cyclical instability can be mitigated if fiscal policy in each member country reacts to inflation differences, but it can be aggravated if fiscal feedback on debt is too strong.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5584.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5584
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  1. Beetsma, Roel & Jensen, Henrik, 2003. "Mark-Up Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy Stabilization in a Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 4020, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  8. Mehra Yash P, 2004. "The Output Gap, Expected Future Inflation and Inflation Dynamics: Another Look," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-19, December.
  9. Tatiana Kirsanova & Mathan Satchi & David Vines & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2006. "Optimal Fiscal Policy Rules in a Monetary Union," Discussion Papers 0611, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
  10. Beetsma, Roel & Jensen, Henrik, 2002. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a micro-founded model of a monetary union," Working Paper Series 0166, European Central Bank.
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  13. Miller, Marcus & Sutherland, Alan, 1991. "The "Walters Critique" of the EMS--A Case of Inconsistent Expectations?," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 59(0), pages 23-37, Supplemen.
  14. Steinsson, Jon, 2003. "Optimal monetary policy in an economy with inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1425-1456, October.
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