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Inflation Persistence and Exchange Rate Regime: Implications for dynamic adjustment to shocks in a small open economy

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  • Karlygash Kuralbayeva

Abstract

The paper examines implications of inflation persistence for business cycle dynamics following terms of trade shock in a small oil producing economy, under inflation targeting and exchange rate targeting regimes. It is shown that due to the 'Walters critique' effect, the country's adjustment paths are slow and cyclical if there is a significant backward-looking element in the inflation dynamics and the exchange rate is fixed. It is also shown that such cyclical adjustment paths are moderated if there is a high proportion of forward-looking price setters in theh economy, so that when the Phillips curve becomes completely forward-looking cyclicality in adjustment paths disappears and the response of the real exchange rate becomes hump-shaped. In contrast, with an independent monetary policy, irrespective of the degree of inflation persistence, flexible exchange rate allows to escape severe cycles, which results in a smooth response of the real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Karlygash Kuralbayeva, 2011. "Inflation Persistence and Exchange Rate Regime: Implications for dynamic adjustment to shocks in a small open economy," OxCarre Working Papers 063, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:063
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wendy Carlin, 2013. "Real Exchange Rate Adjustment, Wage-Setting Institutions, and Fiscal Stabilization Policy: Lessons of the Eurozone's First Decade," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 59(3), pages 489-519, September.
    2. Rhee, Hyuk Jae & Song, Jeongseok, 2013. "Real wage rigidities and optimal monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 110-127.
    3. Hyuk Jae Rhee & Jeongseok Song, 2013. "Unemployment fluctuations, and optimal monetary policy in a small open economy," Working Papers 1309, University of Windsor, Department of Economics.
    4. Ahmad, Yamin S. & Staveley-O’Carroll, Olena M., 2017. "Exploring international differences in inflation dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 115-135.
    5. Yamin Ahmad & Olena Mykhaylova, 2015. "Exploring International Differences in Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 15-01, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2017.
    6. Mohammad Naim Azimi, 2016. "Assessing the Exchange Rate Volatility as an External Shock to Chinese Economy," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(5), pages 277-285, May.
    7. Rhee, Hyuk-jae & Turdaliev, Nurlan, 2012. "Optimal monetary policy in a small open economy with inflation and output persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2533-2542.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation inertia; inflation targeting; exchange rate targeting; Phillips curve; oil shocks; small open economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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