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Adjustment in EMU: A model-based analysis of country experiences

Author

Listed:
  • Sven Langedijk
  • Werner Roeger

Abstract

This paper uses a two-country-three-sector DSGE model to analyse adjustment in the Euro area. A particular distinction is made between tradeables and non tradeables and non tradeables are further disaggregated into housing and services. The experience of six countries which have shown strong divergences in the early years of the euro area, namely Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain is analysed. The framework allows replication of actual developments in euro-area Member States using a model that is inherently stable. It is found that to a large extent, the diverging growth and inflation developments and current account shifts can be attributed to one-off adjustment to EMU which broadly seems to have run its course. The absence of an exchange risk premium in EMU allows an increase in capital mobility resulting in a lower correlation between domestic savings and investment. Increased capital mobility seems to have been an important driving force behind the current account dynamics. Due to the absence of risk premia, investment - and especially housing investment - responds strongly to exogenous shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Sven Langedijk & Werner Roeger, 2007. "Adjustment in EMU: A model-based analysis of country experiences," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 274, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0274
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Torój, Andrzej & Bednarek, Elżbieta & Bęza-Bojanowska, Joanna & Osińska, Joanna & Waćko, Katarzyna & Witkowski, Dariusz, 2012. "EMU: the (post-)crisis perspective. Literature survey and implications for the euro-candidates," MF Working Papers 12, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 06 Mar 2012.
    2. Jürgen Jerger & Oke Röhe, 2009. "Testing for Parameter Stability in DSGE Models. The Cases of France, Germany and Spain," Working Papers 276, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies), revised Mar 2011.
    3. Criste, Adina & Mosneanu, Elena Ana, 2009. "Effects Induced By The Global Economic And Financial Crisis In The New Eu Member States," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 13(4), pages 154-161.
    4. Mai Dao, 2008. "International Spillover of Labor Market Reforms," IMF Working Papers 08/113, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Sebastian Dullien & Ulrich Fritsche, 2007. "Anhaltende Divergenz bei Inflations- und Lohnentwicklung in der Eurozone: Gefahr für die Währungsunion?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(4), pages 56-76.
    6. Fagan, Gabriel & Gaspar, Ví­tor, 2008. "Macroeconomic adjustment to monetary union," Working Paper Series 946, European Central Bank.
    7. Mai Chi Dao, 2013. "International spillovers of labour market policies," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(2), pages 417-446, April.

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