Models for Converging Economies
The aim of this article is the development of models for converging economies. After discussing models of balanced growth, univariate models of the gap between per capital income in two economies are examined. The preferred models combine unobserved components with an error correction mechanism and allow a decomposition into trend, cycle and convergence components. A new type of second-order error correction mechanism is shown to be particularly useful in this respect. The levels of per capita income in two economies may be modelled jointly by bivariate convergence models. These models generalise balanced growth models and can be based on autoregressive or unobserved components formulations. Both approaches provide coherent forecasts but the unobserved components models also yield a description of trends, cycles and convergence components. The methods are applied to data on the US and Japan. The generalisation to multivariate series is then set out.
|Date of creation:||May 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nyblom, Jukka & Harvey, Andrew, 1999.
"Tests of Common Stochastic Trends,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9902, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
- Stock, James H., 1991.
"Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 435-459, December.
- James H. Stock, 1991. "Confidence Intervals for the Largest Autoresgressive Root in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Technical Working Papers 0105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "Asymptotically perfect and relative convergence of productivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-81.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0216. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jake Dyer)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.