Hope springs eternal: French bondholders and the Soviet repudiation (1915-1919)
By their extreme nature, repudiations rarely occur. History is therefore crucial to analyze their impact on bond prices. This paper provides an empirical study based on an original database: prices of a Tsarist bond traded in Paris before and after its repudiation by the Soviets. A structural vector autoregression is used to identify shocks to this bond that are orthogonal to shocks hitting a proxy for the Paris bond market, the French 3% rente. French market shocks are thus disentangled from repudiation specific shocks hitting the Russian bond. Consistent with expectations no major Russian shocks appears before the 1917 revolution. For 1918, shocks are mainly related with bailouts or hopes of partial bailouts. In 1919, however, the nature of shocks changes as they can be explained either by the negotiations with the Soviets or by the fate of the White Armies. In view of these elements, we argue that the bonds’ value were subject to a “Peso problem”. Their prices essentially reflected expected extreme events that never took place.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published by: Centre Emile Bernheim, Bruxelles|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +32 (0)2 650.48.64
Fax: +32 (0)2 650.41.88
Web page: http://difusion.ulb.ac.be
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Oosterlinck, Kim, 2003.
"The bond market and the legitimacy of Vichy France,"
Explorations in Economic History,
Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 326-344, July.
- Kim Oosterlinck, 2003. "The bond market and the legitimacy of Vichy France," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/142693, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Kim Oosterlinck, 2003. "The Bond Market and the Legitimacy of Vichy France," Working Papers CEB 03-003.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Frey, Bruno S & Kucher, Marcel, 2001. "Wars and Markets: How Bond Values Reflect the Second World War," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(271), pages 317-333, August.
- William O. Brown, Jr. & Richard C.K. Burdekin, . "German Debt Traded in London During World War II: A British Perspective on Hitler," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 1999-19, Claremont Colleges.
- Claessens, Stijn & Pennacchi, George, 1996. "Estimating the Likelihood of Mexican Default from the Market Prices of Brady Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 109-126, March.
- Eaton, Jonathan & Fernandez, Raquel, 1995.
Handbook of International Economics,
in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 2031-2077
- Eaton, J. & Fernandez, R., 1995. "Sovereign Debt," Papers 37, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Jonathan Eaton & Raquel Fernandez, 1995. "Sovereign Debt," NBER Working Papers 5131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jonathan Eaton & Raquel Fernandez, 1995. "Sovereign Debt," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 59, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
- Frey, Bruno S. & Waldenstr M, Daniel, 2004. "Markets work in war: World War II reflected in the Zurich and Stockholm bond markets," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 51-67, April.
- Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
- Peter H. Lindert & Peter J. Morton, 1989.
"How Sovereign Debt Has Worked,"
in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 39-106
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988.
"What Moves Stock Prices?,"
NBER Working Papers
2538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2004.
"One asset, two prices: the case of the Tsarist repudiated bonds,"
Working Papers CEB
04-022.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2004. "One Asset, Two Prices: The case of the Tsarist Repudiated Bonds," Economic History 0409001, EconWPA.
- Davis, George K. & Pecquet, Gary M., 1990. "Interest Rates in the Civil War South," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(01), pages 133-148, March.
- Kim Oosterlinck & Loredana Ureche-Rangau, 2005.
"Entre la peste et le choléra: le détenteur d'obligations peut préférer la répudiation au défaut,"
ULB Institutional Repository
2013/6693, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Kim Oosterlinck & Loredana Ureche-Rangau, 2004. "Entre la peste et le choléra: le détenteur d'obligations peut préférer la répudiation au défaut," Working Papers CEB 04-021.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Bruno S. Frey & Marcel Kucher, .
"History as Reflected in Capital Markets: The Case of World War II,"
IEW - Working Papers
002, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- Frey, Bruno S. & Kucher, Marcel, 2000. "History as Reflected in Capital Markets: The Case of World War II," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(02), pages 468-496, June.
- Michael D. Bordo & John Landon Lane & Angela Redish, 2004. "Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era," NBER Working Papers 10329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Willard, Kristen L & Guinnane, Timothy W & Rosen, Harvey S, 1996.
"Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1001-18, September.
- Kristen L. Willard & Timothy W. Guinnane & Harvey S. Rosen, 1995. "Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market," NBER Working Papers 5381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Marc D. Weidenmier, . "Turning Points during the U.S. Civil War: Views from the Grayback Market," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 1999-24, Claremont Colleges.
- Wells, John & Wills, Dougals, 2000. "Revolution, Restoration, and Debt Repudiation: The Jacobite Threat to England's Institutions and Economic Growth," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(02), pages 418-441, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:05-013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Benoit Pauwels)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.