Why Do Investors Still Hope? The Soviet Repudiation Puzzle (1918- 1919)
Based on an original database, this paper provides an empirical study of Tsarist bond prices reactions after their repudiation by the Soviets. For the two years following the repudiation two striking features of a representative Tsarist bond traded in Paris are highlighted: first, the price decline following the repudiation announcement was limited; second the price remained relatively high, and even increased. This is the so- called Soviet Repudiation Puzzle. We argue that the bonds’ persistent high relative value can be approached via the Peso problem hypothesis: prices are affected by expected events that never took place and thus remained unobservable. In the Russian case, several unusual events could have been expected: a dramatic change in the Russian attitude, due for instance to the Soviet overthrow or a takeover of part of the debt either by the French or by another government (most likely countries created from the former Russian Empire). In this respect, the Soviet Repudiation Puzzle appears as a multidimensional peso problem.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter H. Lindert & Peter J. Morton, 1989.
"How Sovereign Debt Has Worked,"
in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 39-106
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Claessens, Stijn & Pennacchi, George, 1996. "Estimating the Likelihood of Mexican Default from the Market Prices of Brady Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 109-126, March.
- Waldenström, Daniel & Frey, Bruno S., 2002.
"How Government Bond Prices Reflect Wartime Events. The Case of the Stockholm Market,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
489, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Daniel Waldenström & Bruno S. Frey, . "How Government Bond Prices Reflect Wartime Events - The Case of the Stockholm Market," IEW - Working Papers 102, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- Jonathan Eaton & Raquel Fernandez, 1995.
Boston University - Institute for Economic Development
59, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
- Kim Oosterlinck, 2003.
"The Bond Market and the Legitimacy of Vichy France,"
Working Papers CEB
03-003.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Oosterlinck, Kim, 2003. "The bond market and the legitimacy of Vichy France," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 326-344, July.
- Kim Oosterlinck, 2003. "The bond market and the legitimacy of Vichy France," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/142693, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Bruno S. Frey & Marcel Kucher, .
"History as Reflected in Capital Markets: The Case of World War II,"
IEW - Working Papers
002, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- Frey, Bruno S. & Kucher, Marcel, 2000. "History as Reflected in Capital Markets: The Case of World War II," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(02), pages 468-496, June.
- Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
- Frey, Bruno S & Kucher, Marcel, 2001. "Wars and Markets: How Bond Values Reflect the Second World War," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(271), pages 317-333, August.
- William O. Brown, Jr. & Richard C.K. Burdekin, . "German Debt Traded in London During World War II: A British Perspective on Hitler," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 1999-19, Claremont Colleges.
- Ozler, Sule, 1989. "On the Relation between Reschedulings and Bank Value," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1117-31, December.
- Davis, George K. & Pecquet, Gary M., 1990. "Interest Rates in the Civil War South," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(01), pages 133-148, March.
- Wells, John & Wills, Dougals, 2000. "Revolution, Restoration, and Debt Repudiation: The Jacobite Threat to England's Institutions and Economic Growth," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(02), pages 418-441, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpeh:0409002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.