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Multiple Potential Payers and Sovereign Bond Prices

  • Kim Oosterlinck
  • Loredana Ureche-Rangau

Sovereign bonds are usually priced under the assumption that only the sovereign issuer may be responsible of their repayment. In some cases however, bondholders may legitimately expect to be repaid by more than one agent. For example, when a country breaks-up, successor states may agree to recognize their responsibility for part of the debt. Other extreme events, such as repudiations, may lead (and have led) bondholders to consider several bailout candidates at the same point in time. This paper first discusses the theoretical financial implications stemming from an infrequent and challenging situation, namely the existence of multiple potential payers. Then, through a historical precedent, the 1918 Russian repudiation, the paper confirms that the existence of multiple potential payers has a diversification effect which lowers the volatility of the bond price and increases its value. These results are strengthened by a comparison with a closely related standard case of default.

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File URL: https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/53950/1/RePEc_sol_wpaper_08-011.pdf
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Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series Working Papers CEB with number 08-011.RS.

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Length: 24 p.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by:
Handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:08-011
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  1. Tuvana Pastine & Robert E. Cumby, 2000. "Emerging Market Debt : Measuring Credit Quality and Examining Relative Pricing," Departmental Working Papers 0010, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
  2. Andrei Shleifer, 2003. "Will The Sovereign Debt Market Survive?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2000, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  3. Jonathan Eaton & Raquel Fernandez, 1995. "Sovereign Debt," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 59, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
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  5. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Schnabel, Isabel & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2006. "How Do Official Bailouts Affect the Risk of Investing in Emerging Markets?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1689-1714, October.
  6. Merrick Jr., John J., 2001. "Crisis dynamics of implied default recovery ratios: Evidence from Russia and Argentina," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1921-1939, October.
  7. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  8. Kim Oosterlinck & John Landon-lane, 2006. "Hope Springs Eternal – French Bondholders and the Soviet Repudiation (1915–1919)," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(4), pages 507-535, December.
  9. Fishlow, Albert, 1985. "Lessons from the past: capital markets during the 19th century and the interwar period," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(03), pages 383-439, June.
  10. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Steven B. Kamin, 2004. "Identifying the Role of Moral Hazard in International Financial Markets," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 25-59, 03.
  12. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2003. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why it Matters," NBER Working Papers 10036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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