IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/poleco/v29y2013icp119-133.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of the Troubles on GDP in Northern Ireland

Author

Listed:
  • Dorsett, Richard

Abstract

This paper explores the effect of conflict on GDP in Northern Ireland. A synthetic control region constructed as a weighted average of other UK regions provides an estimate of counterfactual ‘no-conflict’ GDP. Comparing this with actual per capita GDP suggests a negative impact of up to 10%. Excluding the increased grants provided in response to the conflict, a 15–20% reduction is evident. Most forms of terrorist activity had negative effects over the period 1969–1997. Deaths attributable to Republican paramilitary groups or to the State appear to have a greater and more lasting impact on GDP than deaths attributable to Loyalist paramilitaries.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorsett, Richard, 2013. "The effect of the Troubles on GDP in Northern Ireland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 119-133.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:29:y:2013:i:c:p:119-133
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2012.10.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268012000638
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2012.10.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gupta, Sanjeev & Clements, Benedict & Bhattacharya, Rina & Chakravarti, Shamit, 2004. "Fiscal consequences of armed conflict and terrorism in low- and middle-income countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 403-421, June.
    2. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, 2007. "Calculating Tragedy: Assessing The Costs Of Terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 1-24, February.
    3. Thomas Gries & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 493-508, June.
    4. Keefer,Philip & Loayza,Norman (ed.), 2008. "Terrorism, Economic Development, and Political Openness," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521887588.
    5. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, December.
    6. Freytag, Andreas & Krüger, Jens J. & Meierrieks, Daniel & Schneider, Friedrich, 2011. "The origins of terrorism: Cross-country estimates of socio-economic determinants of terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 5-16.
    7. David Fielding, 2003. "Investment, employment, and political conflict in Northern Ireland," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(3), pages 512-535, July.
    8. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    9. Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Liebert, Helge & Schulze, Günther G., 2011. "On the origin of domestic and international terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 17-36.
    10. Tavares, Jose, 2004. "The open society assesses its enemies: shocks, disasters and terrorist attacks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1039-1070, July.
    11. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1997. "The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 178-191, January.
    12. Rowthorn, Bob, 1981. "Northern Ireland: An Economy in Crisis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 5(1), pages 1-31, March.
    13. Brück, Tilman & Llussá, Fernanda & Tavares, José A., 2011. "Entrepreneurship: The role of extreme events," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 78-88.
    14. Eckstein, Zvi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 2004. "Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 971-1002, July.
    15. Nicole Crain & W. Crain, 2006. "Terrorized economies," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 317-349, July.
    16. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2008. "Growth Consequences of Terrorism in Western Europe," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 411-424, August.
    17. Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1007-1032, July.
    18. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    19. Caruso, Raul & Schneider, Friedrich, 2011. "The socio-economic determinants of terrorism and political violence in Western Europe (1994–2007)," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 37-49.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Costalli & Luigi Moretti & Costantino Pischedda, 2017. "The economic costs of civil war," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 54(1), pages 80-98, January.
    2. Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2016. "Independent Ireland In Comparative Perspective," Working Papers 201620, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    3. Firat Bilgel & Burhan Can Karahasan, 2019. "Thirty Years of Conflict and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Synthetic Control Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 609-631, July.
    4. Hönig, Tillman, 2017. "The Impact of Peace: Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 83302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ferguson, Neil T.N. & Michaelsen, Maren M., 2015. "Money changes everything? Education and regional deprivation revisited," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 129-147.
    6. Bibek Adhikari & Romain Duval & Bingjie Hu & Prakash Loungani, 2018. "Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Some Case Studies using the Synthetic Control Method," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 879-910, September.
    7. Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2017. "Independent Ireland in Comparative Perspective," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _150, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Cormac Ó Gráda & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2022. "The Irish economy during the century after partition," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(2), pages 336-370, May.
    9. Benchimol, Jonathan & El-Shagi, Makram, 2020. "Forecast performance in times of terrorism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 386-402.
    10. Fırat Bilgel & Burhan Can Karahasan, 2017. "The Economic Costs of Separatist Terrorism in Turkey," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(2), pages 457-479, February.
    11. Bibek Adhikari & James Alm, 2016. "Evaluating the Economic Effects of Flat Tax Reforms Using Synthetic Control Methods," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(2), pages 437-463, October.
    12. Björn Falkenhall & Jonas Månsson & Sofia Tano, 2020. "Impact of VAT Reform on Swedish Restaurants: A Synthetic Control Group Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(2), pages 824-850, April.
    13. Bibek Adhikari & James Alm, 2016. "Evaluating the Economic Effects of Flat Tax Reforms Using Synthetic Control Methods," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(2), pages 437-463, October.
    14. Paul Chaney, 2015. "“Post-Feminist†Era of Social Investment and Territorial Welfare? Exploring the Issue Salience and Policy Framing of Child Care in U.K. Elections 1983-2011," SAGE Open, , vol. 5(1), pages 21582440155, February.
    15. Erin O Sills & Diego Herrera & A Justin Kirkpatrick & Amintas Brandão Jr. & Rebecca Dickson & Simon Hall & Subhrendu Pattanayak & David Shoch & Mariana Vedoveto & Luisa Young & Alexander Pfaff, 2015. "Estimating the Impacts of Local Policy Innovation: The Synthetic Control Method Applied to Tropical Deforestation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-15, July.
    16. John Francis O’Connell & David Connolly, 2017. "The strategic evolution of Aer Lingus from a full-service airline to a low-cost carrier and finally positioning itself into a value hybrid airline," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(6), pages 1296-1320, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Freytag, Andreas & Krüger, Jens J. & Meierrieks, Daniel & Schneider, Friedrich, 2011. "The origins of terrorism: Cross-country estimates of socio-economic determinants of terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 5-16.
    2. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part II)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1050, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Thomas Gries & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 493-508, June.
    4. Serhan Cevik & John Ricco, 2020. "Shock and awe? Fiscal consequences of terrorism," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 723-748, February.
    5. Yasir Khan & Cai ShuKai & Taimoor Hassan & Jawed Kootwal & Muhammad Nisar Khan, 2021. "The links between renewable energy, fossil energy, terrorism, economic growth and trade openness: the case of Pakistan," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(9), pages 1-25, September.
    6. Fırat Bilgel & Burhan Can Karahasan, 2017. "The Economic Costs of Separatist Terrorism in Turkey," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(2), pages 457-479, February.
    7. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz & Malik, Muhammad Nasir & Wolters, Mark Edward, 2013. "An analysis of a causal relationship between economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 21-29.
    8. Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Liebert, Helge & Schulze, Günther G., 2014. "On the heterogeneity of terror," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 116-136.
    9. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Muhammad, Nasir Malik & Muhammad, Shahbaz Shabbir, 2011. "Does economic growth cause terrorism in Pakistan?," MPRA Paper 35101, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Nov 2011.
    10. Llussá, Fernanda & Tavares, José, 2011. "Which terror at which cost? On the economic consequences of terrorist attacks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 52-55, January.
    11. Zheng, Mingbo & Feng, Gen-Fu & Jang, Chyi-Lu & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "Terrorism and green innovation in renewable energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    12. Friedrich Schneider & Raul Caruso, 2011. "The (Hidden) Financial Flows of Terrorist and Transnational Crime Organizations: A Literature Review and Some Preliminary Empirical Results," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 52, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Economou Athina & Kollias Christos, 2015. "Terrorism and Political Self-Placement in European Union Countries," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 217-238, April.
    14. José Pedro Pontes & Armando J. Garcia Pires, 2020. "(De) industrialization in the Von Thünen’s economy," Working Papers REM 2020/0141, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    15. Amar Iqbal Anwar & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Foreign Financial Flows and Terrorism In Developing Countries," Working papers of CATT hal-01885149, HAL.
    16. Friedrich Schneider, 2009. "Die Finanzströme von organisierter Kriminalität und Terrorismus: was wissen wir (nicht)?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(4), pages 73-87.
    17. Sultan Mehmood, 2014. "Terrorism and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Pakistan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 509-534, October.
    18. Habib Sekrafi & Mehdi Abid & Soufiene Assidi, 2021. "The impact of terrorism on formal and informal economy in African countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1163-1180, January.
    19. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2023. "Common myths of terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 271-301, April.
    20. Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza & Alejandra Montoya-Agudelo & Felipe Bedoya-Maya, 2017. "An Uphill Battle: The Relationship Between Geography and Terrorism," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 15759, Universidad EAFIT.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Northern Ireland; Conflict; Synthetic control region;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:29:y:2013:i:c:p:119-133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505544 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.