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Armut, Ungleichheit, wirtschaftliche Schwäche?: Empirische Evidenz und methodische Herausforderungen zum Zusammenhang von Ökonomie und Terrorismus

  • Tim Krieger
  • Daniel Meierrieks

In the public and political discourse economic conditions (such as poverty, inequality and low growth rates) are often named as causal factors for the genesis and export of terrorism from poor countries. At the same time, economically successful countries are considered as the prime targets of terrorism. In this paper we show that empirical estimates do not provide unambiguous results. Political, social and demographic conditions tend to correlate strongly with economic factors. Ignoring these variables may therefore result in a systematic overestimation of the role of economic variables. In addition, we argue that the direction of causality between economic conditions and terrorism is a priori unclear. This may also lead to an incorrect interpretation of the economy-terrorism nexus. Im populären und politischen Diskurs werden häufig ökonomische Verhältnisse (wie Armut, Ungleichheit oder Wachstumsschwäche) als Gründe für die Entstehung und den Export von Terrorismus aus ärmeren Ländern genannt. Zugleich gelten wirtschaftlich erfolgreiche Staaten häufig als Ziele des Terrorismus. In der vorliegenden Untersuchung wird aufgezeigt, dass und warum die Empirie hierzu widersprüchliche Ergebnisse liefert. Politische, gesellschaftliche und demographische Gegebenheiten korrelieren stark mit ökonomischen Variablen, sodass eine Nichtberücksichtigung entsprechender Variablen in einer systematischen Überschätzung ökonomischer Einflüsse auf den Terrorismus resultieren kann. Weiterhin wird argumentiert, dass auch die Kausalitätsrichtung zwischen ökonomischen Variablen und Terrorismus a priori unklar ist und damit ebenfalls zu Fehlinterpretationen führen kann.

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Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

Volume (Year): 78 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 29-40

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:78-4-3
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