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Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth

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  • Thomas Gries

    () (University of Paderborn)

  • Tim Krieger

    () (University of Paderborn)

  • Daniel Meierrieks

    () (University of Paderborn)

Abstract

We use the Hsiao-Granger method to test for growth-terrorism causality for seven Western European countries. In bivariate settings, the impact of economic performance on domestic terrorism is very strong. In trivariate settings, the impact of performance on terrorism diminishes. Here, we find that economic performance leads terrorist violence in robust ways only for three out of seven countries. Terrorism is almost never found to causally influence growth in bivariate and trivariate specifications. Our findings indicate that (i) the role of economic performance in determining terrorist violence appears to have been important for some countries and (ii) all attacked economies have been successful in adjusting to the threat of terrorism.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Gries & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2009. "Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth," Working Papers CIE 20, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pdn:ciepap:20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part I)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1049, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Asongu, Simplice & Nwachukwu, Jacinta, 2017. "Fuel Exports, Aid and Terrorism," MPRA Paper 81188, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Brodeur, Abel, 2015. "Terrorism and Employment: Evidence from Successful and Failed Terror Attacks," IZA Discussion Papers 9526, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Heri Bezić & Tomislav Galović & Petar Mišević, 2016. "The key goal of this research is to empirically determine the effects of terrorism on FDI of the selected EU and EEA member countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 333-362.
    5. Simplice Asongu & John Ssozi, 2017. "When is Foreign Aid Effective in Fighting Terrorism? Threshold Evidence," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 370-389, July.
    6. repec:afe:journl:v:19:y:2017:i:2:p:77-91 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz & Malik, Muhammad Nasir & Wolters, Mark Edward, 2013. "An analysis of a causal relationship between economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 21-29.
    8. Kerim Peren ARIN & Otto. F. REICH & Oliver LORZ & Nicola SPAGNOLO, "undated". "Understanding Homeland Security: Theory and UK Evidence," EcoMod2010 259600011, EcoMod.
    9. Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2016. "Conditional linkages between iron ore exports, foreign aid and terrorism," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 29(2), pages 57-70, December.
    10. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "Linkages between inflation, economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 496-506.
    11. Alam Khan & Zarinah Yusof, 2017. "Trade–Terrorist Evaluation Index (TTEi)," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 365-375, January.
    12. Simplice Asongu & Vanessa Tchamyou & Ndemaze Asongu & Nina Tchamyou, 2017. "The Comparative African Economics of Inclusive Development and Military Expenditure in Fighting Terrorism," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 77-91.
    13. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Shahbaz Muhammad, 2011. "Is hike in inflation responsible for rise in terrorism in Pakistan?," MPRA Paper 31236, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 May 2011.
    14. Alam Khan & Mario Estrada & Zarinah Yusof, 2016. "How terrorism affects the economic performance? The case of Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 867-883, March.
    15. Fırat Bilgel & Burhan Can Karahasan, 2017. "The Economic Costs of Separatist Terrorism in Turkey," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), pages 457-479.
    16. Krieger, Tim & Meierreiks, Daniel, 2015. "Does income inequality lead to terrorism? Evidence from the post-9/11 era," Discussion Paper Series 2015-04, University of Freiburg, Wilfried Guth Endowed Chair for Constitutional Political Economy and Competition Policy.
    17. repec:spr:qualqt:v:51:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11135-016-0336-z is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Muhammad, Nasir Malik & Muhammad, Shahbaz Shabbir, 2011. "Does economic growth cause terrorism in Pakistan?," MPRA Paper 35101, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Nov 2011.
    19. repec:eme:ijdipp:ijdi-08-2016-0046 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Simplice Asongu & Oasis Kodila-Tedika, 2017. "Trade, aid and terror," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 2-24, April.
    21. Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2009. "Armut, Ungleichheit, wirtschaftliche Schwäche?: Empirische Evidenz und methodische Herausforderungen zum Zusammenhang von Ökonomie und Terrorismus," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(4), pages 29-40.
    22. repec:sbe:breart:v:30:y:2010:i:1:a:3500 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "Terrorist Financing and Money Laundering," Working Papers CIE 40, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    24. Dorsett, Richard, 2013. "The effect of the Troubles on GDP in Northern Ireland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 119-133.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Domestic Terrorism; Growth; Hsiao-Granger Causality; Western Europe;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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