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Fifty years of peril: A comprehensive comparison of the impact of terrorism and disasters linked to natural hazards (1970–2019)

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  • Timothy Wilson
  • Ilan Noy

Abstract

We compare the realised impact of terrorism and disasters linked to natural hazards. Using 50 years of data from two databases covering most of the global population, we find that natural hazard disasters were more than 20 times more impactful than terrorism. The former had a larger realised impact in all regions in both gross and per capita terms. The largest cross‐peril difference was in Asia, where natural hazard disasters took 324 million lifeyears, while terrorism took 10. Similar results were found across countries grouped by income status and development status. Low‐ and lower‐middle‐income countries bore the vast majority of the impact of both terrorism and natural hazard disasters. Given the multitude of prevalent global threats, our findings are relevant in the allocation of scarce public resources to mitigate and adapt. Our results suggest that significantly greater public spending should be applied to natural hazard disasters than terrorism.

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  • Timothy Wilson & Ilan Noy, 2023. "Fifty years of peril: A comprehensive comparison of the impact of terrorism and disasters linked to natural hazards (1970–2019)," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(5), pages 647-662, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:glopol:v:14:y:2023:i:5:p:647-662
    DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.13238
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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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