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Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts?

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Benchimol

    (Bank of Israel)

  • Makram El-Shagi

    (Henan University)

  • Yossi Saadon

    (Bank of Israel)

Abstract

Each person's characteristics may influence that person's behaviors and their outcomes. We build and use a new database to estimate experts' performance and boldness based on their experience and characteristics. We classify experts providing inflation forecasts based on their education, experience, gender, and environment. We provide alternative interpretations of factors affecting experts' inflation forecasting performance, boldness, and pessimism by linking behavioral economics, the economics of education, and forecasting literature. An expert with previous experience at a central bank appears to have a lower propensity for predicting deflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Benchimol & Makram El-Shagi & Yossi Saadon, 2020. "Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts?," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2020.11, Bank of Israel.
    • Handle: RePEc:boi:wpaper:2020.11
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expert forecast; behavioral economics; survival analysis; panel estimation; global financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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