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Crude oil shocks and stock markets: A panel threshold cointegration approach

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  • Zhu, Hui-Ming
  • Li, Su-Fang
  • Yu, Keming

Abstract

This paper proposes a panel threshold cointegration approach to investigate the relationship between crude oil shocks and stock markets for the OECD and non-OECD panel from January 1995 to December 2009. Nonlinear cointegration is confirmed for the oil-stock nexus in the panel. Because threshold cointegration is found, the threshold vector error correction models can be run to investigate the presence of asymmetric dynamic adjustment. The Granger causality tests demonstrate the existence of bidirectional long-run Granger causality between crude oil shocks and stock markets for these OECD and non-OECD countries. However, the short-run Granger causality between them is bidirectional under positive changes in the deviation and unidirectional under negative ones. Moreover, the speed of adjustment toward equilibrium is faster under negative changes in the deviation than that under positive ones in these OECD and non-OECD countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Hui-Ming & Li, Su-Fang & Yu, Keming, 2011. "Crude oil shocks and stock markets: A panel threshold cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 987-994, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:33:y:2011:i:5:p:987-994
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    3. Suliman Zakaria S. Abdalla, 2014. "The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Sudanese Stock Market Performance," Working Papers 887, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2014.
    4. Ramos, Sofía B. & Veiga, Helena & Wang, Chih-Wei, 2012. "Asymmetric long-run effects in the oil industry," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws120502, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
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    6. Natanelov, Valeri & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2013. "Crude oil–corn–ethanol – nexus: A contextual approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 504-513.
    7. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti, 2015. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock returns in China," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 23(4), pages 657-676, October.
    8. Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2016. "Co-movement of international crude oil price and Indian stock market: Evidences from nonlinear cointegration tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, pages 111-117.
    9. Jammazi, Rania, 2012. "Oil shock transmission to stock market returns: Wavelet-multivariate Markov switching GARCH approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 430-454.
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    13. Schaeffer, Roberto & Borba, Bruno S.M.C. & Rathmann, Régis & Szklo, Alexandre & Castelo Branco, David A., 2012. "Dow Jones sustainability index transmission to oil stock market returns: A GARCH approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 933-943.
    14. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2015. "The dynamics of economic growth, oil prices, stock market depth, and other macroeconomic variables: Evidence from the G-20 countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 84-95.
    15. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2014. "Wavelet-based evidence of the impact of oil prices on stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 145-176.
    16. Du, Limin & He, Yanan, 2015. "Extreme risk spillovers between crude oil and stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, pages 455-465.
    17. Heidari, Hassan & Ebrahimi Torki, Mahyar & Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz, 2015. "How Do Different Oil Price Shocks Affect the Relationship Between Oil and Stock Markets?," MPRA Paper 80273, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Dec 2016.
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    21. Liu, Li & Ma, Feng & Wang, Yudong, 2015. "Forecasting excess stock returns with crude oil market data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, pages 316-324.
    22. Chkili, Walid & Aloui, Chaker & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Instabilities in the relationships and hedging strategies between crude oil and US stock markets: Do long memory and asymmetry matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 354-366.
    23. Yanan He & Jing Zhao, 2013. "Extreme Dependence between Crude Oil and the Stock Markets in China: A Sector," WISE Working Papers 2013-12-05, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    24. Kollias, Christos & Kyrtsou, Catherine & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2013. "The effects of terrorism and war on the oil price–stock index relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, pages 743-752.
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