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Asset prices and banking distress: A macroeconomic approach

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  • von Peter, Goetz

Abstract

This paper links banking with asset prices in a dynamic macroeconomic model, to provide a simple characterization of financial instability. In contrast with historical bank runs, recent banking crises were driven by deteriorating bank assets. Hence, in contrast with bank run models, this paper focuses on the interaction of falling asset prices, bank losses, credit contraction and bankruptcies. This interaction can explain credit crunches, financial instability, and banking crises, either as fundamental or as self-fulfilling outcomes. The model distinguishes between macroeconomic and financial stability. Its simplicity helps understand balance sheet effects and delivers closed-form solutions without resorting to linearization. For instance, the critical threshold beyond which an asset price decline triggers financial instability can be related explicitly to the structural parameters of the economy.

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  • von Peter, Goetz, 2009. "Asset prices and banking distress: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 298-319, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:5:y:2009:i:3:p:298-319
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    Cited by:

    1. Ilhyock Shim & Goetz von Peter, 2007. "Distress selling and asset market feedback," BIS Working Papers 229, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
    3. Kollmann, Robert & Zeugner, Stefan, 2012. "Leverage as a predictor for real activity and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1267-1283.
    4. Davis, J. Scott, 2014. "Financial integration and international business cycle co-movement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 99-111.
    5. Kollmann, Robert & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2011. "Global banking and international business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 407-426, April.
    6. Pan, Huiran & Wang, Chun, 2013. "House prices, bank instability, and economic growth: Evidence from the threshold model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1720-1732.
    7. Bluedorn, John C. & Decressin, Jörg & Terrones, Marco E., 2016. "Do asset price drops foreshadow recessions?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 518-526.
    8. Mejra Festić, 2006. "Procyclicality of Financial and Real Sector in Transition Economies," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(4), pages 315-349.
    9. Pesola, Jarmo, 2011. "Joint effect of financial fragility and macroeconomic shocks on bank loan losses: Evidence from Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3134-3144, November.
    10. Misati, Roseline Nyakerario & Nyamongo, Esman Morekwa, 2012. "Financial liberalization, financial fragility and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 150-160.
    11. Tanja Markovic-Hribernik & Matej Tomec, 2015. "Bad Bank And Other Possible Banks’ Rescuing Models – The Case Of Slovenia," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 128-141, January.
    12. Jan Willem van den End, 2010. "Liquidity Stress-Tester: A Model for Stress-testing Banks' Liquidity Risk," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(1), pages 38-69, March.
    13. Sorge, Marco & Virolainen, Kimmo, 2006. "A comparative analysis of macro stress-testing methodologies with application to Finland," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 113-151, June.
    14. Brei, Michael & Gambacorta, Leonardo & von Peter, Goetz, 2013. "Rescue packages and bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 490-505.
    15. Stracca, Livio, 2007. "Should we take inside money seriously?," Working Paper Series 841, European Central Bank.
    16. Vítor, Castro, 2011. "Can central banks' monetary policy be described by a linear (augmented) Taylor rule or by a nonlinear rule?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 228-246, December.
    17. Eric Wong & Cho-Hoi Hui, 2009. "A Liquidity Risk Stress-Testing Framework with Interaction between Market and Credit Risks," Working Papers 0906, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    18. VanHoose, David, 2011. "Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Bank Regulation: A Critical Appraisal," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 33, pages 45-60.
    19. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2010. "Real estate prices and bank stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1129-1138, June.
    20. Kajuth, Florian, 2010. "The role of liquidity constraints in the response of monetary policy to house prices," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 230-242, December.
    21. Pesola, Jarmo, 2005. "Banking fragility and distress : an econometric study of macroeconomic determinants," Research Discussion Papers 13/2005, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset prices Inside money Default Credit crunch Financial instability Banking crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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