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Financial Cycles and Bankruptcies in the Nordic Countries

Author

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  • Hansen, Jan

    () (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between macroeconomic imbalances and bankruptcies in the Nordic countries. Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark liberalised their financial markets during the 1980s and experienced the consecutive emergence of a financial cycle, followed by severe banking crises. Cointegration analysis and Granger causality tests suggest that the joint path of credit, house prices and possibly investment in construction relative to GDP creates macroeconomic imbalances and has high predictive power for bankruptcies. House prices appear to be most important. Several empirical results appear to be similar for Sweden, Finland and Norway, while patterns for Denmark often differ. The estimations indicate that macroeconomic imbalances were small at the end of 2001 in all four countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Hansen, Jan, 2003. "Financial Cycles and Bankruptcies in the Nordic Countries," Working Paper Series 149, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0149
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    File URL: http://www.riksbank.se/upload/8016/wp_149.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
    2. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
    3. Herring, Richard J, 1999. "Credit Risk and Financial Instability," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 63-79, Autumn.
    4. Bergman, U. Michael & Hansen, Jan, 2002. "Financial Instability and Monetary Policy: The Swedish Evidence," Working Paper Series 137, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    5. Pesola, Jarmo, 2001. "The role of macroeconomic shocks in banking crises," Research Discussion Papers 6/2001, Bank of Finland.
    6. Davis, E. Philip, 1995. "Debt, Financial Fragility, and Systemic Risk," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198233312.
    7. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    8. Burkhard Drees & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1995. "The Nordic Banking Crises; Pitfalls in Financial Liberalization?," IMF Working Papers 95/61, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1999. "Bubbles, Crises, and Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 9-18, Autumn.
    10. Guttentag, Jack & Herring, Richard, 1984. " Credit Rationing and Financial Disorder," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1359-1382, December.
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    12. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. von Peter, Goetz, 2009. "Asset prices and banking distress: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 298-319, September.
    2. Bouvatier, Vincent & López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Short-run dynamics in bank credit: Assessing nonlinearities in cyclicality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 127-136.
    3. Mejra Festić, 2006. "Procyclicality of Financial and Real Sector in Transition Economies," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(4), pages 315-349.
    4. Caterina Mendicino, 2005. "Credit Market Development, Asset Prices and Business Cycle," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 74, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    5. Goetz von Peter, 2004. "Asset Prices and Banking Distress: A Macroeconomic Approach," Finance 0411034, EconWPA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic imbalances; financial distress; VAR model; cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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