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Credit Risk and Financial Instability

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  • Herring, Richard J

Abstract

Recent advances in modelling credit risk bring much greater discipline to the pricing of credit risk and should promote diversification by penalizing concentrations of credit risk with greater allocations of economic capital. Although these models perform well with regard to high-frequency hazards, they are ill equipped to deal with the low-frequency, high-severity events that are likely to be the most serious threat to financial stability. Cognitive biases in estimating the probability of such losses may lead to disaster myopia. In periods of benign financial conditions, disaster myopia is likely to lead to decisions regarding allocations of economic capital, the pricing of credit risk, and the range of borrowers who are deemed creditworthy, that make the financial system increasingly vulnerable to crisis. Alternative policy measures to counter disaster myopia are considered. Copyright 1999 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Herring, Richard J, 1999. "Credit Risk and Financial Instability," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 63-79, Autumn.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:15:y:1999:i:3:p:63-79
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    Cited by:

    1. Cotter, John & Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin, 2006. "Financial Risks and the Pension Protection Fund: Can it Survive Them?," MPRA Paper 3498, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hong Liu & Phil Molyneux & John O. S. Wilson, 2013. "Competition And Stability In European Banking: A Regional Analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(2), pages 176-201, March.
    3. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2005. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks’ choice of loan rating system," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 26(3), pages 537-557, October.
    4. Beck, Günter Wilfried & Kotz, Hans-Helmut, 2016. "Euro area shadow banking activities in a low-interest-rate environment: A flow-of-funds perspective," SAFE White Paper Series 37, Goethe University Frankfurt, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe.
    5. Santiago Fernández de Lis & Jorge Martínez Pagés & Jesús Saurina, 2001. "Credit growth, problem loans and credit risk provisioning in Spain," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 331-353 Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Verónica Vallés & Christian Weistroffer, 2010. "Monitoring banking sector risks: an applied approach," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    7. Martin Cihak, 2004. "Stress Testing: A Review of Key Concepts," Research and Policy Notes 2004/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    8. Ari Hyytinen & Tuomas Takalo, 2004. "Preventing Systemic Crises through Bank Transparency," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 33(2), pages 257-273, July.
    9. Cattaneo, Mattia & Meoli, Michele & Vismara, Silvio, 2015. "Financial regulation and IPOs: Evidence from the history of the Italian stock market," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 116-131.
    10. Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong, 2013. "Policy in adaptive financial markets—the use of systemic risk early warning tools," Working Paper 1309, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    11. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57 Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Malgorzata Olszak, 2015. "The phenomenon of excessive procyclicality of the financial sector from the perspective of macroprudential policy – sources, methods of reduction and their basic limitations (Zjawisko nadmiernej procy," Problemy Zarzadzania, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 13(55), pages 72-96.
    13. Laurent Clerc & Françoise Drumetz & Olivier Jaudoin, 2001. "To what extent are prudential and accounting arrangements pro- or countercyclical with respect to overall financial conditions?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 197-210 Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Carling, Kenneth & Lundberg, Sofia, 2005. "Asymmetric information and distance: an empirical assessment of geographical credit rationing," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 39-59.
    15. Hawkins, Raymond J., 2011. "Lending sociodynamics and economic instability," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(23), pages 4355-4369.
    16. Christopher Kent & Patrick D'Arcy, 2001. "Cyclical prudence - credit cycles in Australia," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 58-90 Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Consumer credit conditions in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 314, Bank of England.
    18. Camille Cornand & Céline Gimet, 2011. "The 2007-2008 financial crisis : Is there evidence of disaster myopia ?," Working Papers 1125, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    19. Hansen, Jan, 2003. "Financial Cycles and Bankruptcies in the Nordic Countries," Working Paper Series 149, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    20. Herring, Richard J., 2004. "The subordinated debt alternative to Basel II," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 137-155, December.
    21. Kevin Amess & Panicos Demetriades, 2010. "Financial Liberalisation and the South Korean Financial Crisis: An Analysis of Expert Opinion," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 212-238, February.

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